NBA games

HOU @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
113–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU22213832113
ORL29242728108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home ORL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 40 40 8 3
Reed Sheppard 31 20 3 4
Alperen Sengun S 31 16 6 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 29 13 1 1
Amen Thompson S 28 9 5 3
Josh Okogie 21 6 3 1
Clint Capela 17 4 6 3
Dorian Finney-Smith 12 3 1 1
Tari Eason S 33 2 8 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 38 30 6 4
Paolo Banchero S 37 19 8 9
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 16 6 1
Jevon Carter 22 14 2 3
Tristan da Silva S 35 8 5 3
Anthony Black S 23 8 1 2
Moritz Wagner 15 6 3 2
Jett Howard 14 4 6 1
Jalen Suggs 13 3 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 16 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
2 Anthony Black ORL
10%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
6 Alperen Sengun HOU
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Tari Eason HOU
7%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
30%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane ORL 23.7 3.9 3.6
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.4 7.1 5.3
3 Kevin Durant HOU 19.4 4.6 4.2
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.0 6.7 1.8
5 Anthony Black ORL 16.0 4.0 3.4
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.8 3.6 3.5
7 Alperen Sengun HOU 14.7 7.7 5.7
8 Amen Thompson HOU 14.7 7.5 4.9
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.5 4.9 6.5
10 Tari Eason HOU 11.7 6.0 1.9
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.2 8.0 1.8
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.4 3.3 1.0
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.5 3.7 1.6
14 Josh Okogie HOU 5.2 3.0 0.9
15 Jett Howard ORL 5.1 1.8 0.8
16 Jevon Carter ORL 4.9 2.0 1.1
17 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.6 2.4 1.1
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.1 4.5 0.4
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.9 1.5 1.0
20 Isaiah Crawford HOU 3.9 2.3 0.8
21 Clint Capela HOU 3.5 3.9 0.5
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.4 2.8 0.8
23 Jase Richardson ORL 3.4 1.4 0.8
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.1 1.4 0.5
25 Noah Penda ORL 2.8 1.9 0.7
26 Jamal Cain ORL 2.5 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.