NBA games

SA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
126–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA36353322126
BKN22342826110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home BKN
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Champagnie S 24 26 2 2
Stephon Castle S 25 18 2 5
De'Aaron Fox S 25 14 1 6
Devin Vassell S 28 14 7 5
Keldon Johnson 18 13 4 0
Dylan Harper 29 12 3 7
Victor Wembanyama S 26 12 8 5
Luke Kornet 19 6 7 2
Lindy Waters III 8 6 0 0
Harrison Barnes 16 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 25 14 1
Danny Wolf 22 14 5 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 14 11 4
Nolan Traore S 30 13 2 3
Nic Claxton S 24 12 7 3
Noah Clowney S 30 11 1 1
Jalen Wilson 5 9 0 0
Egor Demin S 25 6 5 9
Drake Powell 21 4 1 1
Ziaire Williams 13 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes 1-foot dunk (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
13%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 Nolan Traore BKN
10%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
8 Egor Demin BKN
8%
9 De'Aaron Fox SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.7 10.3 3.5
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 21.9 5.6 3.8
3 Stephon Castle SA 19.1 5.3 6.6
4 Devin Vassell SA 14.2 3.8 2.8
5 Nolan Traore BKN 14.0 3.2 5.9
6 Dylan Harper SA 14.0 4.3 4.5
7 Nic Claxton BKN 13.6 6.4 4.5
8 De'Aaron Fox SA 12.7 2.6 4.4
9 Keldon Johnson SA 12.0 4.4 1.7
10 Noah Clowney BKN 11.6 4.2 1.4
11 Egor Demin BKN 11.6 3.7 2.6
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 10.9 7.7 2.3
13 Danny Wolf BKN 10.1 5.6 3.2
14 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.0 3.0 1.4
15 Harrison Barnes SA 9.7 3.3 1.8
16 Julian Champagnie SA 9.6 4.6 1.8
17 Terance Mann BKN 8.5 2.7 1.8
18 Carter Bryant SA 6.6 3.3 1.0
19 Drake Powell BKN 6.1 2.3 1.3
20 Luke Kornet SA 5.4 5.8 1.5
21 Ochai Agbaji BKN 4.9 2.3 1.0
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.8 2.2 0.9
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.4 1.2 0.5
24 Josh Minott BKN 2.1 0.8 0.4
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.1 0.9 0.6
26 Lindy Waters III SA 1.8 0.4 0.5
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.