NBA games

WSH @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
96–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2630241696
ATL37392228126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ATL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley S 36 14 10 4
Justin Champagnie 20 14 2 1
Tre Johnson S 20 14 5 1
Jaden Hardy 28 14 2 0
Tristan Vukcevic S 17 11 3 2
Anthony Gill 31 11 5 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 22 10 5 1
Leaky Black 30 4 7 0
Bub Carrington S 22 2 5 5
Sharife Cooper 14 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Corey Kispert 28 33 6 1
CJ McCollum S 26 25 6 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 30 17 9 3
Dyson Daniels S 33 13 4 11
Onyeka Okongwu S 26 10 11 3
Jock Landale 18 9 3 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 8 6 1
Christian Koloko 3 4 4 0
Gabe Vincent 16 3 0 4
Mouhamed Gueye 18 2 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 6-foot two point shot (Jonathan Kuminga assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
13%
2 CJ McCollum ATL
12%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
4 Tre Johnson WSH
12%
5 Bub Carrington WSH
11%
6 Christian Koloko ATL
11%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
9 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
8%
10 Will Riley WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
21%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 CJ McCollum ATL 19.9 3.9 4.0
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.2 7.0 3.0
3 Will Riley WSH 15.1 4.0 2.5
4 Tre Johnson WSH 14.2 2.8 2.9
5 Kyshawn George WSH 13.1 3.6 3.0
6 Sharife Cooper WSH 12.0 3.9 3.7
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.2 3.8 2.8
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.2 6.4 5.2
9 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.9 4.6 1.5
10 Bub Carrington WSH 10.8 3.5 4.4
11 Corey Kispert ATL 10.4 3.2 2.0
12 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 10.2 4.6 2.2
13 Jock Landale ATL 9.8 5.6 1.7
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.4 5.4 1.3
15 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.2 3.9 1.5
16 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.2 4.5 1.5
17 Buddy Hield ATL 8.0 2.2 1.6
18 Anthony Gill WSH 8.0 4.7 2.2
19 Jaden Hardy WSH 7.9 1.8 1.3
20 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.7 1.7 1.6
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.5 3.8 1.0
22 Asa Newell ATL 4.0 1.8 0.5
23 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.6 1.3 1.0
24 Christian Koloko ATL 3.3 3.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.