NBA games

MIA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
117–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA35223426117
PHI36372625124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home PHI
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 36 29 14 3
Tyler Herro 32 25 4 7
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 30 19 4 2
Andrew Wiggins S 35 18 2 2
Pelle Larsson S 33 9 4 6
Kel'el Ware 12 5 6 0
Simone Fontecchio 9 3 1 0
Kasparas Jakucionis 17 3 5 1
Norman Powell S 10 3 3 2
Davion Mitchell S 24 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 38 28 4 11
Joel Embiid S 31 26 11 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 34 21 8 3
VJ Edgecombe S 39 19 8 4
Quentin Grimes 21 9 4 0
Dominick Barlow S 31 9 2 0
Cameron Payne 16 6 3 1
Adem Bona 15 4 3 0
Trendon Watford 11 2 6 3
Jabari Walker 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes layup (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
13%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
4 Norman Powell MIA
10%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
9 Pelle Larsson MIA
7%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.0 8.3 6.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.4 4.2 4.9
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.3 4.8 4.0
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.2 9.8 3.5
5 Norman Powell MIA 18.0 3.7 2.4
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.9 5.7 2.7
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.1 6.3 3.7
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.4 4.5 2.8
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.8 5.8 4.3
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 14.1 5.8 3.8
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.4 3.0 3.2
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.2 3.1 5.5
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 8.2 1.0
14 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.9 5.1 1.3
15 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 8.9 2.8 3.8
16 Trendon Watford PHI 7.0 3.7 2.1
17 Andre Drummond PHI 6.8 7.6 1.6
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.1 2.9 1.2
19 Adem Bona PHI 6.0 5.3 0.9
20 Myron Gardner MIA 5.8 4.4 1.4
21 Cameron Payne PHI 5.0 1.3 2.0
22 Tyrese Martin PHI 4.7 1.6 0.6
23 Dru Smith MIA 4.7 2.6 2.4
24 Justin Edwards PHI 4.6 1.6 0.8
25 Jabari Walker PHI 3.3 1.9 0.7
26 Jahmir Young MIA 2.9 0.7 0.6
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.8 1.1 0.4
28 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.7 1.0 0.3
29 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.6 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.