NBA games

CHA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
133–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA31364026133
IND34123627109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home IND
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 26 33 7 4
Kon Knueppel S 31 28 4 2
LaMelo Ball S 22 20 4 8
Moussa Diabate S 30 14 11 4
Grant Williams 23 9 4 2
Miles Bridges S 24 7 3 2
Coby White 17 7 1 6
Pat Connaughton 8 5 1 1
Tre Mann 10 4 3 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner 12 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 29 20 3 7
Micah Potter 26 19 4 1
Jarace Walker S 31 16 6 1
Quenton Jackson 31 13 4 2
Ben Sheppard S 25 11 5 3
T.J. McConnell 17 9 2 7
Jay Huff S 28 7 4 3
Kobe Brown 26 6 5 1
Kam Jones 19 5 2 2
Obi Toppin S 8 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Obi Toppin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Obi Toppin makes driving layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
14%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
8 Jarace Walker IND
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Jay Huff IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
32%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.0 5.3 4.3
2 Coby White CHA 22.0 4.0 5.4
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 21.9 5.5 3.9
4 Pascal Siakam IND 21.6 5.2 3.4
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.5 4.9 6.8
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.9 3.4 7.5
7 Jarace Walker IND 17.8 7.9 4.3
8 Miles Bridges CHA 17.8 5.4 3.7
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.4 3.3 2.1
10 Micah Potter IND 11.4 4.6 2.0
11 Quenton Jackson IND 11.1 2.7 2.6
12 Jay Huff IND 10.7 4.2 1.7
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.6 10.3 2.2
14 Obi Toppin IND 9.3 4.1 2.0
15 Grant Williams CHA 9.2 4.7 2.2
16 Ben Sheppard IND 8.6 2.8 1.9
17 T.J. McConnell IND 8.5 2.3 3.6
18 Kam Jones IND 7.8 2.3 3.2
19 Kobe Brown IND 7.3 4.0 1.4
20 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.9 6.4 1.2
21 Josh Green CHA 6.8 2.5 1.1
22 Sion James CHA 5.7 3.4 2.2
23 Tre Mann CHA 5.4 2.2 1.6
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.7 1.8 0.9
25 Xavier Tillman CHA 3.2 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.