NBA games

BOS @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
84103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2424191784
DEN21263026103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DEN
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 34 23 11 3
Derrick White S 33 20 6 3
Neemias Queta S 28 10 4 1
Baylor Scheierman S 25 9 4 0
Sam Hauser S 24 5 4 1
Hugo Gonzalez 10 5 2 1
Jordan Walsh 14 4 3 0
Ron Harper Jr. 11 3 1 2
Payton Pritchard 28 3 3 4
Nikola Vucevic 23 2 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 33 30 12 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21 14 4 4
Julian Strawther S 26 12 1 1
Jonas Valanciunas 12 11 6 2
Cameron Johnson S 35 11 5 3
Spencer Jones 26 6 7 0
Christian Braun S 28 6 7 2
DaRon Holmes II 3 5 1 0
Bruce Brown 28 4 4 5
Jamal Murray S 8 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 2-foot dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
5 Christian Braun DEN
8%
6 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
7 Julian Strawther DEN
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
10 Ron Harper Jr. BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
18%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.5 11.8 9.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.2 6.5 4.1
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 22.3 3.9 6.5
4 Jamal Murray DEN 21.5 4.3 6.4
5 Derrick White BOS 16.7 4.1 6.9
6 Nikola Vucevic BOS 14.7 7.3 2.6
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 11.6 3.7 2.3
8 Julian Strawther DEN 11.6 3.9 2.0
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.5 2.8 1.1
10 Christian Braun DEN 10.6 4.2 2.9
11 Neemias Queta BOS 10.1 9.3 1.9
12 Sam Hauser BOS 10.0 3.7 1.8
13 Bruce Brown DEN 9.3 3.2 1.8
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 9.3 6.2 1.9
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.6 4.7 1.1
16 Spencer Jones DEN 5.7 3.5 1.0
17 Luka Garza BOS 5.6 2.8 0.7
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.2 3.6 0.9
19 KJ Simpson DEN 5.2 1.3 2.3
20 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.5 2.5 0.9
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.8 3.1 0.7
22 Dalano Banton BOS 3.1 1.3 0.8
23 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.1 1.1 0.6
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 2.8 0.4
25 John Tonje BOS 2.6 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.