NBA games

SAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
97128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2228262197
HOU33443120128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home HOU
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 25 22 5 3
DeMar DeRozan S 24 15 1 7
Nique Clifford 29 15 2 1
Maxime Raynaud S 29 11 8 2
Daeqwon Plowden 24 9 2 0
Malik Monk 19 7 5 3
Precious Achiuwa S 30 6 10 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 21 5 3 1
Keegan Murray S 9 3 1 0
Killian Hayes 20 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reed Sheppard S 32 28 4 2
Alperen Sengun S 32 26 13 11
Kevin Durant S 28 21 4 5
Josh Okogie 24 14 7 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 12 2 3
Tari Eason S 21 8 2 1
Aaron Holiday 20 7 1 3
Jeff Green 15 5 1 1
Isaiah Crawford 17 3 4 1
Clint Capela 13 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Russell Westbrook · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Russell Westbrook makes 8-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
16%
2 Kevin Durant HOU
13%
3 Keegan Murray SAC
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 Precious Achiuwa SAC
10%
6 Maxime Raynaud SAC
10%
7 Tari Eason HOU
10%
8 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
9 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 22.0 4.6 4.4
2 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 18.1 7.2 1.9
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 16.4 3.3 3.1
4 Malik Monk SAC 14.4 2.4 3.6
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 14.1 7.0 5.6
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 13.8 3.1 4.4
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.5 4.8 2.0
8 Nique Clifford SAC 13.1 4.1 3.8
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.0 3.4 3.5
10 Tari Eason HOU 12.7 6.3 2.1
11 Maxime Raynaud SAC 12.2 9.8 1.6
12 Devin Carter SAC 8.8 3.5 2.7
13 Precious Achiuwa SAC 8.4 5.8 1.3
14 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 6.4 3.0 1.3
15 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.1 2.5 1.3
16 Josh Okogie HOU 5.0 3.0 1.1
17 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.4 1.9 0.8
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.1 1.5 1.0
19 Clint Capela HOU 4.0 4.0 0.7
20 Killian Hayes SAC 3.7 1.0 1.6
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.4 0.9 0.5
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.3 1.4 0.7
23 JD Davison HOU 2.8 1.2 1.0
24 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.7 2.0 0.4
25 Patrick Baldwin Jr. SAC 2.2 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.