NBA games

GS @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
133–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS34402237133
MEM31222336112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MEM
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Richard S 30 21 5 6
Gary Payton II 28 19 5 4
Brandin Podziemski S 31 19 8 6
Gui Santos S 26 17 3 4
Moses Moody S 28 14 2 3
Pat Spencer 32 12 2 9
Quinten Post 21 12 8 0
Al Horford S 27 10 7 3
Malevy Leons 18 9 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 26 24 8 2
Ty Jerome S 24 22 3 5
Javon Small S 28 16 6 4
Taylor Hendricks 28 14 6 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. 20 8 3 4
Rayan Rupert 24 8 3 1
Jaylen Wells S 27 8 2 3
Cam Spencer 21 5 1 2
Walter Clayton Jr. 22 4 0 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 20 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Al Horford · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Al Horford makes 6-foot two point shot (Gui Santos assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ty Jerome MEM
9%
2 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
3 GG Jackson MEM
8%
4 Gui Santos GS
8%
5 De'Anthony Melton GS
8%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
7%
9 Pat Spencer GS
6%
10 Cam Spencer MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
22%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Gui Santos GS 17.3 5.6 4.4
2 Moses Moody GS 17.1 4.4 2.3
3 GG Jackson MEM 17.0 6.0 2.6
4 De'Anthony Melton GS 16.7 3.7 3.4
5 Ty Jerome MEM 16.7 3.1 5.2
6 Kristaps Porzingis GS 15.1 4.5 2.0
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.0 3.6 2.2
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.0 7.3 5.1
9 Santi Aldama MEM 13.0 5.9 2.4
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.7 2.5 5.5
11 Javon Small MEM 12.6 3.9 3.9
12 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 12.3 4.6 1.6
13 Al Horford GS 11.8 4.9 3.5
14 Cedric Coward MEM 11.7 4.3 3.0
15 Pat Spencer GS 10.5 3.3 4.8
16 Cam Spencer MEM 10.5 2.9 5.2
17 Draymond Green GS 10.3 5.3 4.9
18 Gary Payton II GS 8.2 3.1 1.6
19 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 7.5 2.6 3.6
20 Taylor Hendricks MEM 7.1 3.6 1.4
21 Will Richard GS 6.6 2.8 1.7
22 Quinten Post GS 6.0 3.6 1.5
23 Rayan Rupert MEM 5.5 2.9 1.1
24 Malevy Leons GS 3.4 2.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.