NBA games

SA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
110–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30272132110
TOR29303117107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home TOR
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 32 21 5 2
De'Aaron Fox S 31 20 2 1
Dylan Harper 29 15 5 7
Stephon Castle S 28 13 3 5
Victor Wembanyama S 30 12 8 3
Julian Champagnie S 28 10 6 5
Harrison Barnes 21 8 3 2
Luke Kornet 21 6 6 0
Carter Bryant 7 3 1 0
Keldon Johnson 14 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 37 20 4 0
Brandon Ingram S 37 20 11 4
Jakob Poeltl 28 15 7 2
Scottie Barnes S 31 15 4 2
RJ Barrett S 33 12 7 3
Jamal Shead 19 12 1 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 19 5 7 2
Collin Murray-Boyles S 15 4 5 1
Jamison Battle 6 2 0 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 14 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
12%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
6 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
8 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
9 Devin Vassell SA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
36%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.3 10.6 3.2
2 Stephon Castle SA 19.7 5.4 6.4
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 18.8 4.5 3.7
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.5 3.9 5.5
5 RJ Barrett TOR 17.4 5.9 3.8
6 Scottie Barnes TOR 14.5 7.2 4.8
7 Dylan Harper SA 13.7 4.4 3.8
8 Devin Vassell SA 12.9 3.8 2.6
9 Keldon Johnson SA 12.0 4.4 1.6
10 De'Aaron Fox SA 11.6 2.6 4.5
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.9 4.0 1.7
12 Harrison Barnes SA 9.4 3.2 1.7
13 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 9.4 5.0 2.2
14 Julian Champagnie SA 9.2 4.6 1.4
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.3 3.1 1.6
16 Jakob Poeltl TOR 8.1 6.1 2.3
17 Jamal Shead TOR 7.1 2.5 4.1
18 Carter Bryant SA 5.9 3.1 0.9
19 Gradey Dick TOR 4.7 2.3 0.8
20 Luke Kornet SA 4.4 5.8 1.5
21 Jamison Battle TOR 3.6 1.7 0.7
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 3.1 2.1 0.7
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.5 1.4 0.6
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.2 1.0 0.6
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 0.8 0.6
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.4 0.9 0.3
27 Lindy Waters III SA 1.3 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.