NBA games

OKC @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
116–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC34182836116
DET22363630124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DET
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylin Williams S 35 30 11 4
Cason Wallace S 30 23 2 5
Aaron Wiggins S 35 20 4 6
Jared McCain 30 20 3 2
Kenrich Williams 26 13 4 0
Branden Carlson 4 4 4 2
Isaiah Joe S 14 3 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 28 3 3 4
Buddy Boeheim 1 0 0 0
Nikola Topic 16 0 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 29 4 13
Jalen Duren S 31 29 15 2
Duncan Robinson S 30 16 3 3
Ausar Thompson S 28 11 4 7
Caris LeVert 17 9 0 1
Paul Reed 17 8 6 0
Ronald Holland II 16 8 5 2
Javonte Green 17 6 4 0
Tobias Harris S 24 4 8 1
Daniss Jenkins 13 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylin Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
17%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
3 Cason Wallace OKC
14%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
12%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
12%
6 Tobias Harris DET
12%
7 Duncan Robinson DET
9%
8 Isaiah Joe OKC
7%
9 Jaylin Williams OKC
0%
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
39%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
16%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 21.6 6.1 7.3
2 Cason Wallace OKC 15.3 4.1 4.8
3 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.6 3.3 2.0
4 Jalen Duren DET 13.1 7.9 1.6
5 Tobias Harris DET 12.6 6.2 2.0
6 Duncan Robinson DET 12.5 2.9 2.0
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.2 3.4 1.9
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.6 3.1 1.8
9 Ausar Thompson DET 9.4 6.0 3.1
10 Paul Reed DET 8.7 5.1 1.2
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.7 2.7 1.8
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.6 5.2 2.3
13 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.7 3.4 1.3
14 Ronald Holland II DET 7.6 4.4 1.5
15 Jared McCain OKC 7.6 2.5 1.3
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.4 2.9 0.9
17 Caris LeVert DET 6.8 2.3 2.3
18 Alex Caruso OKC 6.6 2.0 1.8
19 Nikola Topic OKC 6.3 2.0 2.6
20 Javonte Green DET 5.3 2.2 0.9
21 Kevin Huerter DET 4.4 2.5 1.4
22 Marcus Sasser DET 3.9 1.0 1.6
23 Isaac Jones DET 3.4 1.4 0.6
24 Tolu Smith DET 3.3 3.5 0.6
25 Branden Carlson OKC 2.8 2.4 0.4
26 Buddy Boeheim OKC 2.1 0.6 0.3
27 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 1.9 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.