NBA games

MIN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
124–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33293428124
POR27323527121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home POR
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 34 4 4
Jaden McDaniels S 37 29 6 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 33 19 1 4
Julius Randle S 31 13 7 6
Rudy Gobert S 36 10 19 4
Naz Reid 23 8 3 2
Ayo Dosunmu 24 7 1 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 6 2 0 0
Bones Hyland 13 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 33 22 3 4
Jerami Grant S 35 21 5 2
Scoot Henderson 29 19 6 5
Kris Murray S 29 16 5 1
Toumani Camara S 37 11 4 5
Donovan Clingan S 36 11 16 5
Matisse Thybulle 10 10 1 1
Vit Krejci 15 8 3 2
Sidy Cissoko 16 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Kris Murray makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
2 Jerami Grant POR
10%
3 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
6 Julius Randle MIN
8%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
8 Deni Avdija POR
8%
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
10 Joan Beringer MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
42%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.8 5.5 3.4
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.3 6.8 5.6
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.8 3.8 3.2
4 Jrue Holiday POR 18.2 4.9 5.7
5 Jerami Grant POR 18.2 3.6 2.4
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 17.5 4.6 3.5
7 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 17.5 4.0 4.4
8 Donovan Clingan POR 15.6 10.2 2.9
9 Naz Reid MIN 15.5 6.6 3.0
10 Scoot Henderson POR 14.9 3.2 5.5
11 Deni Avdija POR 14.5 5.5 5.0
12 Toumani Camara POR 13.0 5.7 2.3
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.9 10.7 1.5
14 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.9 3.8 4.8
15 Bones Hyland MIN 8.5 2.7 2.7
16 Vit Krejci POR 8.4 2.4 1.5
17 Kris Murray POR 8.0 3.7 1.7
18 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.7 3.4 2.0
19 Robert Williams III POR 7.6 6.9 1.4
20 Blake Wesley POR 5.4 1.6 2.2
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.6 0.8
22 Mike Conley MIN 4.3 2.3 2.1
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.1 1.3 0.7
24 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.7 1.7 0.7
25 Joan Beringer MIN 3.5 2.4 0.5
26 Julian Phillips MIN 3.2 1.2 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.5 1.3 1.0
28 Javonte Cooke POR 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.