NBA games

ORL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
110–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL25282631110
LAL33232429109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home LAL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 36 10 6
Desmond Bane S 36 22 1 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 36 20 11 2
Tristan da Silva S 32 13 6 3
Anthony Black S 30 8 4 4
Jett Howard 21 4 4 1
Moritz Wagner 11 4 3 1
Jonathan Isaac 15 3 4 3
Jase Richardson 5 0 0 0
Jevon Carter 16 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 22 9 15
LeBron James S 32 21 6 4
Deandre Ayton S 32 21 13 0
Austin Reaves S 35 18 2 3
Rui Hachimura 26 10 0 0
Luke Kennard 15 9 1 1
Marcus Smart S 23 3 1 1
Jake LaRavia 16 3 2 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 12 2 2 0
Maxi Kleber 11 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
12%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Anthony Black ORL
11%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
6 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
33%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 26.8 6.9 7.2
2 Desmond Bane ORL 24.3 3.8 3.4
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.5 7.1 5.5
4 Austin Reaves LAL 20.3 4.7 4.1
5 LeBron James LAL 18.2 4.8 6.6
6 Anthony Black ORL 17.2 4.0 3.6
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.5 7.5 1.2
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.4 3.2 1.3
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.8 7.4 2.0
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 9.0 3.3 1.5
11 Marcus Smart LAL 8.8 2.7 2.7
12 Luke Kennard LAL 8.7 3.0 1.5
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.2 2.9 1.1
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.4 3.3 1.5
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.8 3.7 1.2
16 Jevon Carter ORL 4.6 1.8 1.1
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.6 4.7 0.6
18 Jett Howard ORL 4.5 1.5 0.9
19 Kobe Bufkin LAL 4.1 1.8 0.8
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.3 2.9 0.8
21 Noah Penda ORL 3.3 2.1 1.0
22 Jase Richardson ORL 3.3 1.3 0.9
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.1 1.9 0.7
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.0 1.4 0.5
25 Jamal Cain ORL 2.7 0.9 0.5
26 Drew Timme LAL 2.6 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.