NBA games

BOS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
97–81
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2129301797
PHX2620112481

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHX
88% 12%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 34 22 8 8
Sam Hauser S 29 16 3 4
Neemias Queta S 27 14 13 3
Baylor Scheierman S 32 11 11 2
Ron Harper Jr. S 30 8 5 1
Nikola Vucevic 19 8 4 2
Payton Pritchard 34 8 6 4
Jordan Walsh 9 5 4 0
Luka Garza 4 3 3 0
Hugo Gonzalez 13 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Gillespie S 27 15 3 3
Grayson Allen 24 14 3 1
Jalen Green S 26 13 4 1
Ryan Dunn S 25 10 6 2
Royce O'Neale S 21 9 2 1
Amir Coffey 23 6 1 1
Khaman Maluach 6 5 2 0
Oso Ighodaro 24 4 3 5
Koby Brea 6 3 0 1
Mark Williams S 18 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Derrick White makes 27-foot running jump shot (Sam Hauser assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
17%
2 Derrick White BOS
12%
3 Mark Williams PHX
11%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
5 Sam Hauser BOS
10%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
7 Jalen Green PHX
8%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
9 Baylor Scheierman BOS
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.1 6.8 4.1
2 Payton Pritchard BOS 21.8 3.9 6.0
3 Grayson Allen PHX 19.8 3.9 4.8
4 Nikola Vucevic BOS 15.7 8.1 2.9
5 Derrick White BOS 15.6 4.1 6.2
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.3 3.7 4.9
7 Jalen Green PHX 11.5 3.0 2.6
8 Mark Williams PHX 10.7 7.5 1.3
9 Neemias Queta BOS 9.6 9.7 2.2
10 Sam Hauser BOS 9.5 4.0 1.7
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.4 5.0 2.1
12 Baylor Scheierman BOS 8.6 5.6 2.0
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.3 4.9 2.3
14 Luka Garza BOS 6.4 3.3 1.1
15 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 5.4 1.8 2.1
16 Amir Coffey PHX 4.9 1.7 1.1
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.8 3.4 0.9
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.6 3.1 1.2
19 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.4 3.3 0.8
20 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.7 2.3 0.7
21 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.4 1.5 0.8
22 Koby Brea PHX 3.3 1.0 1.0
23 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.1 2.4 0.5
24 Dalano Banton BOS 2.6 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.