NBA games

GS @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
109–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS19203337109
NO31153136113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home NO
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Anthony Melton S 28 28 4 3
Moses Moody S 34 24 5 3
Brandin Podziemski 32 16 15 3
Gui Santos S 39 15 12 4
Draymond Green S 32 11 7 6
Quinten Post 23 6 9 1
Pat Spencer S 23 5 2 4
Gary Payton II 12 4 3 2
Will Richard 17 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 26 6 0
Saddiq Bey S 31 18 6 1
Dejounte Murray S 25 13 2 3
Jordan Poole 23 12 6 3
Karlo Matkovic 18 10 8 1
Jeremiah Fears 21 8 3 5
Derik Queen 18 8 7 2
Bryce McGowens 18 7 4 0
DeAndre Jordan S 22 6 8 2
Herbert Jones S 31 5 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 2-foot layup (DeAndre Jordan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
18%
2 Gui Santos GS
10%
3 De'Anthony Melton GS
9%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
9%
5 DeAndre Jordan NO
8%
6 Herbert Jones NO
8%
7 Derik Queen NO
8%
8 Moses Moody GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Pat Spencer GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
14%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 23.0 6.8 4.5
2 Saddiq Bey NO 21.4 6.3 3.6
3 Gui Santos GS 16.8 5.1 4.0
4 Moses Moody GS 15.1 4.3 1.9
5 De'Anthony Melton GS 15.0 3.7 3.2
6 Kristaps Porzingis GS 15.0 4.4 1.9
7 Derik Queen NO 14.3 7.4 3.1
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.5 6.5 4.6
9 Al Horford GS 11.9 4.9 3.3
10 Jeremiah Fears NO 11.2 4.1 3.7
11 Herbert Jones NO 10.9 3.8 3.6
12 Pat Spencer GS 10.5 3.3 4.5
13 Jordan Poole NO 10.4 2.4 2.4
14 Draymond Green GS 8.7 4.6 4.4
15 Bryce McGowens NO 8.5 1.8 1.6
16 Gary Payton II GS 7.9 3.1 1.4
17 Will Richard GS 7.0 2.8 1.8
18 DeAndre Jordan NO 6.6 7.6 0.8
19 Quinten Post GS 5.8 3.3 1.3
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.4 3.7 1.0
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.7 2.0 0.8
22 Malevy Leons GS 3.3 2.0 0.5
23 Kevon Looney NO 3.2 5.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.