NBA games

MIA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
117–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29293524117
MIL30332639128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MIL
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 30 26 6 0
Bam Adebayo S 31 18 9 2
Andrew Wiggins S 29 16 8 5
Tyler Herro 26 14 2 6
Kel'el Ware 19 14 8 0
Pelle Larsson S 36 10 6 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 22 9 2 3
Davion Mitchell S 28 8 6 8
Kasparas Jakucionis 10 2 3 1
Myron Gardner 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 37 32 7 7
Bobby Portis 24 21 2 1
Ryan Rollins S 37 21 4 5
Kyle Kuzma S 25 19 4 0
Ousmane Dieng 22 11 6 1
AJ Green S 28 8 5 4
Jericho Sims 29 8 10 5
Cam Thomas 20 6 3 2
Myles Turner S 19 2 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes layup (AJ Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
12%
2 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
5 Myles Turner MIL
10%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
7 Norman Powell MIA
8%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
24%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ryan Rollins MIL 23.2 5.3 5.5
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.1 4.7 3.5
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.5 9.7 3.4
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 18.7 5.0 7.6
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.3 5.5 2.6
6 Norman Powell MIA 15.9 3.3 2.7
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.9 6.3 4.8
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.8 6.0 4.3
9 Cam Thomas MIL 15.7 2.9 2.7
10 Myles Turner MIL 15.5 7.4 2.1
11 Pelle Larsson MIA 14.2 5.0 3.5
12 Bobby Portis MIL 13.2 7.4 2.2
13 AJ Green MIL 9.6 2.8 2.0
14 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.5 7.5 0.8
15 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.4 2.7 5.2
16 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 8.5 2.7 3.7
17 Pete Nance MIL 8.0 3.3 1.2
18 Jericho Sims MIL 6.7 6.5 1.6
19 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.4 3.0 1.4
20 Ousmane Dieng MIL 5.9 3.0 1.4
21 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.8 1.1 1.0
22 Myron Gardner MIA 5.3 4.2 1.3
23 Dru Smith MIA 5.2 2.7 2.7
24 Gary Harris MIL 3.6 1.3 1.1
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.2 1.2 0.5
26 Jahmir Young MIA 2.9 0.7 0.6
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.4 1.5 0.7
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.3 0.6
29 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.7 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.