NBA games

CHA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
131–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA31254233131
CHI3124162899

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CHI
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 25 23 5 3
Kon Knueppel S 23 21 1 2
Miles Bridges S 22 16 7 2
LaMelo Ball S 23 16 3 7
Grant Williams 19 11 4 2
Josh Green 17 11 4 0
Coby White 16 10 3 4
Moussa Diabate S 31 9 7 5
Tre Mann 8 7 4 1
Pat Connaughton 13 5 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 33 32 7 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 27 11 4 1
Patrick Williams S 26 11 2 1
Collin Sexton 28 10 2 1
Josh Giddey S 26 8 2 5
Isaac Okoro S 27 7 2 2
Rob Dillingham 23 6 5 5
Nick Richards 22 6 5 0
Leonard Miller 5 5 2 0
Tre Jones 20 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
18%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
5 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
6 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
7 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
7%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
6%
9 Coby White CHA
6%
10 Grant Williams CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
25%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kon Knueppel CHA 24.2 5.9 4.0
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.8 5.0 6.9
3 Brandon Miller CHA 22.6 5.6 4.2
4 Coby White CHA 21.9 3.7 5.2
5 Miles Bridges CHA 16.8 5.0 3.5
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.0 6.0 2.6
7 Josh Giddey CHI 14.6 5.2 6.1
8 Tre Jones CHI 13.5 3.0 6.2
9 Jalen Smith CHI 12.3 6.5 1.5
10 Isaac Okoro CHI 12.0 3.2 2.0
11 Collin Sexton CHI 10.9 2.5 2.0
12 Patrick Williams CHI 10.1 3.6 2.5
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.9 9.3 1.6
14 Grant Williams CHA 9.1 4.7 2.1
15 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 7.5 4.4 1.5
16 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 7.4 6.7 1.2
17 Josh Green CHA 6.0 2.3 1.2
18 Nick Richards CHI 5.8 5.2 0.8
19 Rob Dillingham CHI 5.7 2.0 1.9
20 Sion James CHA 5.6 3.9 1.9
21 Tre Mann CHA 5.3 1.8 1.6
22 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.2 1.7 0.9
23 Xavier Tillman CHA 3.0 1.5 0.7
24 Leonard Miller CHI 2.5 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.