NBA games

NY @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
94–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY2628112994
CLE35252326109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CLE
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 20 1 4
Mikal Bridges S 32 18 4 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 14 7 2
Mitchell Robinson 19 11 16 1
Josh Hart S 26 10 4 5
OG Anunoby S 34 5 3 2
Mohamed Diawara 8 5 0 0
Jose Alvarado 22 5 4 3
Tyler Kolek 3 4 0 2
Landry Shamet 20 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 31 23 5 4
James Harden S 32 20 2 4
Jarrett Allen S 29 19 10 1
Evan Mobley S 24 12 7 1
Jaylon Tyson 27 12 8 2
Dean Wade S 25 11 8 3
Thomas Bryant 3 5 0 0
Keon Ellis 16 4 0 1
Dennis Schroder 21 3 2 5
Sam Merrill 21 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Josh Hart makes 6-foot jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
10%
7 James Harden CLE
9%
8 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
14%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.9 3.5 4.9
2 Jarrett Allen CLE 20.5 11.0 2.2
3 James Harden CLE 20.3 5.1 8.4
4 Jalen Brunson NY 19.0 3.7 5.3
5 OG Anunoby NY 18.4 4.8 2.8
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.7 9.0 2.4
7 Evan Mobley CLE 17.3 9.3 3.5
8 Mikal Bridges NY 15.2 3.9 3.3
9 Josh Hart NY 12.5 6.2 4.9
10 Landry Shamet NY 11.9 2.4 2.0
11 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.9 3.9 2.0
12 Sam Merrill CLE 9.8 2.6 1.8
13 Dennis Schroder CLE 9.3 2.8 3.5
14 Jose Alvarado NY 8.7 2.5 2.9
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.8 3.8 1.2
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.6 3.0 1.1
17 Keon Ellis CLE 6.0 2.9 1.4
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.0 6.6 0.7
19 Mohamed Diawara NY 5.4 1.8 1.0
20 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.6 3.2 0.9
21 Tyler Kolek NY 4.3 1.1 2.8
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.2 2.4 2.7
23 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.9 0.8 1.1
24 Jordan Clarkson NY 3.8 1.1 0.8
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.6 3.6 0.6
26 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.7 1.4 0.6
27 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.6 1.8 0.4
28 Dillon Jones NY 1.3 1.3 0.4
29 Trey Jemison III NY 1.1 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.