NBA games

OKC @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
116–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC25353818116
TOR32192927107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home TOR
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cason Wallace S 35 27 8 7
Isaiah Joe S 33 22 2 3
Alex Caruso 23 16 2 4
Luguentz Dort S 34 15 5 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 11 9 0
Aaron Wiggins 17 8 1 1
Chet Holmgren S 30 7 9 4
Jared McCain 10 5 4 0
Nikola Topic 6 3 0 0
Jaylin Williams 16 2 8 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 34 21 8 4
Immanuel Quickley S 33 17 3 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 23 17 4 1
Brandon Ingram S 35 15 6 6
Scottie Barnes S 32 15 3 7
Jamal Shead 23 13 1 4
Collin Murray-Boyles S 30 4 4 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15 3 2 1
Jamison Battle 9 2 1 1
Gradey Dick 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot running jump shot (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
4 Luguentz Dort OKC
11%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
6 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
7 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
8%
8 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.0 4.2 3.3
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.1 4.4 5.3
3 RJ Barrett TOR 15.9 5.8 3.6
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 14.7 7.8 4.5
5 Cason Wallace OKC 13.7 3.8 4.0
6 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.7 3.2 2.0
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.3 4.4 1.9
8 Chet Holmgren OKC 10.8 7.5 1.5
9 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.3 5.1 2.3
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.1 3.6 2.1
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.6 6.8 4.6
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 3.4 1.7
13 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.5 4.7 2.0
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.4 3.7 1.4
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.1 3.0 1.6
16 Jared McCain OKC 7.8 2.3 1.4
17 Jamal Shead TOR 6.9 2.7 4.0
18 Nikola Topic OKC 6.4 2.3 3.1
19 Alex Caruso OKC 5.8 2.0 1.6
20 Gradey Dick TOR 5.3 2.3 0.9
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 3.4 2.3 0.7
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.1 1.6 0.7
23 Buddy Boeheim OKC 2.5 0.8 0.5
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.5 1.6 0.7
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.2 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.