NBA games

DAL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
123–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36402324123
BKN29352723114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home BKN
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marvin Bagley III 20 22 5 1
Naji Marshall S 36 21 5 7
Brandon Williams 29 19 1 10
Klay Thompson 23 17 2 2
Max Christie S 29 13 7 0
P.J. Washington S 30 13 4 2
Daniel Gafford S 17 9 4 1
Khris Middleton S 12 6 5 1
Caleb Martin 23 3 5 2
Dwight Powell 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 26 0 3
Noah Clowney S 33 22 5 0
Terance Mann 19 17 1 3
Nic Claxton S 32 16 4 9
Ochai Agbaji 17 9 3 2
Nolan Traore S 28 8 3 6
Day'Ron Sharpe 16 7 2 1
Danny Wolf 14 4 3 2
Egor Demin S 28 3 5 2
Drake Powell 21 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 2-foot layup (Nic Claxton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
15%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
13%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
4 Max Christie DAL
10%
5 Khris Middleton DAL
9%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Nolan Traore BKN
9%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
9 Egor Demin BKN
8%
10 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
33%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 24.2 6.2 4.3
2 Naji Marshall DAL 19.0 5.9 3.2
3 Brandon Williams DAL 16.8 3.4 4.2
4 Khris Middleton DAL 15.4 4.2 3.4
5 Max Christie DAL 15.1 3.4 2.8
6 Nolan Traore BKN 14.8 3.1 6.4
7 P.J. Washington DAL 13.6 6.3 2.0
8 Nic Claxton BKN 13.4 7.0 3.8
9 Egor Demin BKN 13.3 3.8 3.2
10 Noah Clowney BKN 12.5 4.0 1.6
11 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 12.4 8.8 2.7
12 Danny Wolf BKN 12.0 6.1 3.4
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.1 3.2 1.7
14 Marvin Bagley III DAL 10.9 7.6 1.3
15 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.0 7.0 1.4
16 Klay Thompson DAL 9.0 2.5 1.3
17 Terance Mann BKN 8.4 3.1 1.9
18 Caleb Martin DAL 8.3 4.4 1.9
19 Drake Powell BKN 6.3 2.5 1.4
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.6 2.5 1.3
21 Ochai Agbaji BKN 5.2 2.5 1.1
22 Tyus Jones DAL 4.9 1.4 3.3
23 AJ Johnson DAL 4.4 1.8 1.0
24 Miles Kelly DAL 2.6 1.1 0.6
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.0 2.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.