NBA games

WSH @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
98–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2023213498
ATL35254019119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ATL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley 29 18 4 2
Jamir Watkins 27 14 2 1
Justin Champagnie 15 14 2 0
Kyshawn George S 21 11 2 2
Tre Johnson S 24 8 1 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 8 6 4
Sharife Cooper 17 7 0 1
Alondes Williams 9 5 3 0
Tristan Vukcevic S 22 5 6 1
Anthony Gill 24 5 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 24 27 7 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 25 16 3 5
Corey Kispert 21 12 3 2
Gabe Vincent 22 11 2 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 23 10 10 7
Zaccharie Risacher 28 9 9 3
CJ McCollum S 23 8 2 2
Dyson Daniels S 24 6 8 7
Mouhamed Gueye 18 6 11 1
Jock Landale 21 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
5 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
6 Anthony Gill WSH
8%
7 CJ McCollum ATL
8%
8 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
13%
Layup
62%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 CJ McCollum ATL 22.2 4.0 4.0
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.7 9.3 6.9
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.1 4.4 5.8
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.6 6.8 2.8
5 Kyshawn George WSH 13.8 4.2 3.4
6 Will Riley WSH 13.8 3.8 3.0
7 Tre Johnson WSH 13.4 2.9 2.8
8 Sharife Cooper WSH 11.9 4.0 4.0
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.9 6.2 5.3
10 Alondes Williams WSH 11.8 5.6 3.2
11 Bub Carrington WSH 11.8 3.0 4.3
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.7 3.9 2.5
13 Jock Landale ATL 11.0 5.9 1.7
14 Corey Kispert ATL 10.8 3.2 2.1
15 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.4 4.6 1.5
16 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.0 4.4 1.3
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.6 6.2 1.3
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.8 3.5 1.4
19 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 8.7 4.3 2.1
20 Jaden Hardy WSH 8.6 2.1 1.5
21 Buddy Hield ATL 8.2 2.3 1.6
22 Anthony Gill WSH 7.1 4.6 1.9
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.6 3.5 1.1
24 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.3 1.5 1.6
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.3 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.