NBA games

PHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
135–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI30453129135
IND38272029114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home IND
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 34 32 9 8
Joel Embiid S 26 27 6 5
VJ Edgecombe S 30 23 7 4
Quentin Grimes 27 15 2 2
Trendon Watford 15 12 4 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 28 12 4 2
Adem Bona 15 6 5 3
Justin Edwards 7 2 0 1
Cameron Payne 16 2 0 0
Andre Drummond 7 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 28 23 1 3
Micah Potter 23 23 3 3
Quenton Jackson 28 15 2 1
Kam Jones S 29 13 6 3
Ben Sheppard S 28 12 3 0
Kobe Brown 31 9 10 4
Jarace Walker S 32 8 10 6
T.J. McConnell 15 7 2 3
Jay Huff S 25 4 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes two point shot (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
7 Jarace Walker IND
8%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 T.J. McConnell IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
43%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 32.7 8.5 5.7
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.6 3.6 5.6
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.5 5.4 3.6
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.4 4.0 8.9
5 Jarace Walker IND 18.6 7.4 4.0
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.5 6.0 3.7
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.8 5.3 3.0
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.6 3.5 2.3
9 Jay Huff IND 11.5 4.5 1.6
10 Quenton Jackson IND 10.9 2.7 2.8
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.8 3.1 3.3
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 10.6 5.1 1.3
13 Micah Potter IND 9.6 5.1 2.0
14 Ben Sheppard IND 8.9 3.2 2.1
15 T.J. McConnell IND 7.9 2.2 3.7
16 Andre Drummond PHI 7.2 8.6 1.6
17 Kam Jones IND 7.2 1.9 3.4
18 Kobe Brown IND 6.7 3.4 1.1
19 Trendon Watford PHI 6.3 3.3 2.1
20 Adem Bona PHI 6.0 5.3 0.7
21 Cameron Payne PHI 5.5 1.4 2.4
22 Dalen Terry PHI 5.1 2.5 1.6
23 Justin Edwards PHI 4.8 1.7 0.8
24 Jabari Walker PHI 3.7 2.3 0.8
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.0 0.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.