NBA games

UTAH @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
105–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH22252830105
HOU38303225125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home HOU
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 32 29 3 2
Brice Sensabaugh 32 26 3 1
Isaiah Collier S 30 17 1 3
Kyle Filipowski S 24 13 5 4
John Konchar 24 5 4 2
Kevin Love 24 5 9 5
Ace Bailey S 27 4 8 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 11 3 0 1
Cody Williams S 14 2 0 0
Vince Williams Jr. 8 1 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 31 9 0
Amen Thompson S 29 20 7 3
Kevin Durant S 34 18 5 12
Alperen Sengun S 36 16 9 9
Reed Sheppard 24 15 3 4
Tari Eason S 32 11 10 4
Aaron Holiday 6 7 2 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 20 3 4 0
Josh Okogie 13 2 1 1
Clint Capela 10 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
2 Isaiah Collier UTAH
11%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
6 Ace Bailey UTAH
10%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 John Konchar UTAH
7%
9 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
10 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
37%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.7 6.1 2.4
2 Kevin Durant HOU 20.4 4.4 3.2
3 Isaiah Collier UTAH 18.4 4.9 9.2
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.6 6.9 2.0
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 17.0 8.0 5.3
6 Amen Thompson HOU 16.1 7.5 5.3
7 Ace Bailey UTAH 15.4 5.9 2.5
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 14.5 3.2 2.0
9 Tari Eason HOU 13.2 6.0 1.9
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.8 3.4 3.5
11 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.6 8.2 2.5
12 Vince Williams Jr. UTAH 7.9 3.4 2.8
13 Cody Williams UTAH 7.9 3.6 1.5
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.1 2.0 1.1
15 Kevin Love UTAH 5.8 5.6 1.2
16 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.9 2.2 1.2
17 John Konchar UTAH 4.7 3.8 1.7
18 Josh Okogie HOU 4.4 2.5 0.8
19 Clint Capela HOU 4.3 4.1 0.8
20 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.0 1.1 0.7
21 Isaiah Crawford HOU 3.0 1.3 0.6
22 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.3 3.1 0.7
23 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.3 0.8 0.8
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.0 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.