NBA games

SAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
123–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC33302931123
MEM25362825114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MEM
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 33 25 2 7
Precious Achiuwa S 33 22 12 0
Daeqwon Plowden 26 19 5 1
DeMar DeRozan S 29 19 2 4
Nique Clifford 28 12 6 5
Maxime Raynaud S 28 10 13 2
Malik Monk 19 10 0 2
Keegan Murray S 34 6 5 5
Killian Hayes 11 0 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Javon Small 25 21 6 9
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 25 17 3 1
GG Jackson S 26 16 6 1
Jaylen Wells S 26 12 3 2
Taylor Hendricks 25 12 3 1
Rayan Rupert 26 10 9 1
Walter Clayton Jr. 21 9 1 6
Cam Spencer S 22 7 3 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 22 6 2 8
Jahmai Mashack 22 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 10-foot two point shot (Keegan Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
2 Jaylen Wells MEM
12%
3 Keegan Murray SAC
12%
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
5 Precious Achiuwa SAC
9%
6 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
9%
7 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
8 Taylor Hendricks MEM
8%
9 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
10 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.3 3.5 3.8
2 GG Jackson MEM 16.6 6.0 3.0
3 Keegan Murray SAC 16.0 5.0 1.9
4 Malik Monk SAC 15.4 2.7 3.8
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 14.9 3.3 4.5
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.1 3.4 2.2
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.6 2.5 5.0
8 Maxime Raynaud SAC 13.2 9.3 1.7
9 Nique Clifford SAC 13.1 4.3 3.8
10 Cedric Coward MEM 11.8 4.2 3.0
11 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 10.9 4.1 1.5
12 Cam Spencer MEM 10.2 2.6 5.6
13 Javon Small MEM 10.2 3.4 3.5
14 Precious Achiuwa SAC 7.1 4.9 1.4
15 Kyle Anderson MEM 7.0 3.0 2.1
16 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 6.9 2.5 2.9
17 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.6 8.4 1.2
18 Taylor Hendricks MEM 6.4 3.3 1.3
19 Jahmai Mashack MEM 6.2 2.5 1.7
20 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 5.9 2.9 1.3
21 Doug McDermott SAC 4.6 1.4 0.8
22 Killian Hayes SAC 4.5 1.3 1.3
23 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.7 2.7 0.7
24 Rayan Rupert MEM 3.5 1.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.