NBA games

SA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
114–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA24332631114
DET27282028103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DET
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 36 28 2 4
Victor Wembanyama S 36 21 17 4
Julian Champagnie S 36 17 6 1
Stephon Castle S 30 16 4 11
De'Aaron Fox S 33 10 7 7
Keldon Johnson 22 9 4 0
Dylan Harper 18 5 2 3
Carter Bryant 4 3 2 1
Harrison Barnes 15 3 2 1
Luke Kornet 9 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 29 25 14 1
Cade Cunningham S 35 16 6 10
Ronald Holland II 26 15 11 0
Duncan Robinson S 27 13 3 5
Paul Reed 20 10 5 0
Ausar Thompson S 18 8 4 2
Daniss Jenkins 21 7 3 0
Caris LeVert 21 5 1 1
Tobias Harris S 30 4 8 2
Javonte Green 13 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
13%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 Tobias Harris DET
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Devin Vassell SA
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 De'Aaron Fox SA
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
34%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
15%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 22.4 5.8 7.5
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.3 10.3 3.2
3 Stephon Castle SA 17.6 5.2 5.9
4 Tobias Harris DET 14.2 6.3 2.3
5 Dylan Harper SA 13.6 4.4 3.8
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.3 7.9 1.8
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.5 4.8 2.0
8 Duncan Robinson DET 12.4 2.8 2.0
9 De'Aaron Fox SA 11.8 2.3 4.7
10 Devin Vassell SA 10.6 3.5 2.1
11 Harrison Barnes SA 9.7 3.2 1.7
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.1 5.9 3.4
13 Paul Reed DET 8.5 5.0 1.2
14 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.3 2.5 2.2
15 Julian Champagnie SA 8.1 4.1 1.4
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.6 2.9 1.0
17 Ronald Holland II DET 7.1 3.7 1.6
18 Caris LeVert DET 6.6 2.4 2.5
19 Carter Bryant SA 6.1 3.0 0.9
20 Javonte Green DET 5.5 2.4 0.9
21 Luke Kornet SA 4.8 5.8 1.5
22 Marcus Sasser DET 4.6 1.2 1.7
23 Kevin Huerter DET 4.5 2.5 1.4
24 Tolu Smith DET 4.0 3.8 0.8
25 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.0 1.5 0.6
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.7 1.2 0.7
27 Chaz Lanier DET 2.1 0.7 0.4
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.7 1.0 0.4
29 Lindy Waters III SA 1.2 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.