NBA games

ORL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
111–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL29283123111
LAC25283620109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home LAC
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 32 36 5 1
Paolo Banchero S 37 16 7 8
Wendell Carter Jr. S 33 15 14 3
Tristan da Silva S 30 13 2 2
Anthony Black S 36 11 2 1
Moritz Wagner 11 9 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 15 5 4 1
Jase Richardson 10 4 1 2
Jett Howard 17 2 4 2
Jevon Carter 19 0 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 33 37 8 4
Bennedict Mathurin 30 21 9 5
Jordan Miller 23 14 1 1
Brook Lopez S 22 10 4 1
Kobe Sanders S 26 7 2 2
Kris Dunn S 34 7 5 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 26 7 8 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 32 6 3 3
Nicolas Batum 13 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 1-foot running dunk (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
15%
2 Anthony Black ORL
14%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
5 Kris Dunn LAC
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
8 Brook Lopez LAC
9%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
10 Moritz Wagner ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.2 6.3 4.0
2 Desmond Bane ORL 23.2 3.5 3.7
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.9 7.4 5.0
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 19.0 5.2 3.3
5 Anthony Black ORL 18.7 4.2 3.8
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.8 4.0 1.6
7 Brook Lopez LAC 9.9 4.2 1.5
8 Jordan Miller LAC 9.5 3.2 2.3
9 Kris Dunn LAC 9.4 3.4 5.4
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.7 6.7 1.7
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.8 2.8 0.9
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.0 3.3 1.4
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.0 2.6 2.3
14 Jevon Carter ORL 5.1 1.8 0.8
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.1 4.9 0.6
16 Jett Howard ORL 4.8 1.6 0.7
17 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.8 1.9 1.7
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.6 2.8 1.0
19 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.4 3.6 0.7
20 Noah Penda ORL 3.9 2.3 0.9
21 Jamal Cain ORL 3.5 1.3 0.7
22 Isaiah Jackson LAC 3.2 3.7 0.8
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.2 2.7 0.7
24 Jase Richardson ORL 3.2 1.3 0.8
25 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.4 0.8 1.5
26 Cam Christie LAC 2.2 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.