NBA games

POR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
92–77
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2027242192
PHX2020172077

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHX
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 31 23 2 1
Donovan Clingan S 31 23 13 3
Toumani Camara S 35 12 10 2
Scoot Henderson 30 11 4 6
Jrue Holiday S 29 6 5 7
Kris Murray 22 6 2 1
Robert Williams III 15 4 5 0
Matisse Thybulle 12 3 3 0
Blake Wesley 2 2 0 0
Sidy Cissoko 15 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Gillespie S 33 18 3 3
Jalen Green S 22 13 3 1
Amir Coffey 23 8 4 4
Jamaree Bouyea 21 8 2 3
Khaman Maluach 16 7 7 0
Rasheer Fleming 22 6 1 0
Mark Williams S 15 6 5 0
Oso Ighodaro 17 4 2 3
Koby Brea 2 3 0 0
Ryan Dunn S 31 2 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Gillespie · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:31 Q1
"Collin Gillespie makes 12-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
13%
2 Donovan Clingan POR
12%
3 Mark Williams PHX
12%
4 Jrue Holiday POR
11%
5 Jerami Grant POR
10%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
7 Jalen Green PHX
8%
8 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
31%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.4 3.9 3.1
2 Deni Avdija POR 18.0 6.2 5.3
3 Jrue Holiday POR 17.7 4.4 5.2
4 Jerami Grant POR 15.9 3.6 2.0
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 14.4 3.9 5.3
6 Scoot Henderson POR 14.2 3.0 5.0
7 Donovan Clingan POR 14.1 10.5 2.6
8 Jalen Green PHX 13.2 3.2 3.1
9 Toumani Camara POR 13.0 5.7 2.3
10 Mark Williams PHX 11.9 8.0 1.5
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.7 4.6 2.5
12 Oso Ighodaro PHX 8.4 6.1 2.3
13 Kris Murray POR 8.2 3.9 1.5
14 Vit Krejci POR 8.0 2.2 1.4
15 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.8 3.8 1.9
16 Robert Williams III POR 7.6 7.0 1.3
17 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 6.4 2.1 2.0
18 Blake Wesley POR 5.9 1.8 2.4
19 Amir Coffey PHX 5.3 1.7 1.0
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.3 3.1 1.1
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.5 0.8
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.9 1.8 0.9
23 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.4 2.0 0.9
24 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.1 2.4 0.6
25 Koby Brea PHX 3.0 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.