NBA games

NY @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
105–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY25273122105
CHI2726252199

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CHI
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 28 11 2
Jalen Brunson S 36 19 5 9
Landry Shamet 23 16 2 0
Josh Hart S 33 11 9 5
Mikal Bridges S 30 11 2 5
OG Anunoby S 34 9 9 2
Jose Alvarado 25 5 4 2
Ariel Hukporti 15 4 5 0
Jeremy Sochan 11 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 26 15 4 0
Jalen Smith S 18 12 5 1
Isaac Okoro S 33 12 6 1
Guerschon Yabusele S 30 11 13 1
Patrick Williams 28 10 1 8
Nick Richards 23 9 13 0
Collin Sexton 12 8 1 0
Tre Jones 23 8 1 3
Rob Dillingham 24 8 4 4
Josh Giddey S 23 6 2 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes 17-foot jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
3 OG Anunoby NY
11%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Jalen Smith CHI
8%
10 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 22.0 4.1 5.9
2 OG Anunoby NY 19.2 4.8 3.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.0 9.9 3.0
4 Josh Giddey CHI 16.1 6.0 6.8
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.0 6.4 2.8
6 Mikal Bridges NY 15.8 4.1 3.6
7 Josh Hart NY 14.2 6.2 5.5
8 Tre Jones CHI 13.4 3.5 6.7
9 Landry Shamet NY 12.0 2.4 2.4
10 Jalen Smith CHI 11.7 7.0 1.4
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 11.2 3.0 1.8
12 Collin Sexton CHI 11.1 2.7 2.1
13 Jose Alvarado NY 9.3 2.6 3.4
14 Patrick Williams CHI 9.2 3.7 1.8
15 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 6.3 3.5 1.3
16 Mohamed Diawara NY 6.0 2.1 1.2
17 Nick Richards CHI 5.3 4.4 0.6
18 Rob Dillingham CHI 5.3 1.9 1.7
19 Tyler Kolek NY 4.9 1.3 3.1
20 Jordan Clarkson NY 4.5 1.4 1.0
21 Yuki Kawamura CHI 3.9 2.4 3.8
22 Mac McClung CHI 3.4 0.9 0.4
23 Jeremy Sochan NY 3.0 1.7 0.8
24 Leonard Miller CHI 2.9 1.8 0.4
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.8 2.8 0.5
26 Dillon Jones NY 2.0 1.5 0.6
27 Trey Jemison III NY 1.8 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.