NBA games

PHI @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
135–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI35332641135
MIN26322030108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIN
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 35 39 3 8
VJ Edgecombe S 37 24 7 1
Quentin Grimes 28 19 3 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 18 5 2
Dominick Barlow S 28 8 3 3
Adem Bona 20 8 5 2
Andre Drummond S 22 6 9 2
Justin Edwards 3 5 0 0
Cameron Payne 11 3 2 3
Dalen Terry 3 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 28 9 3
Jaden McDaniels S 34 19 6 2
Julius Randle S 31 18 3 3
Ayo Dosunmu 28 12 5 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 28 11 6 3
Joan Beringer S 17 7 3 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 18 6 0 0
Bones Hyland 14 3 4 2
Jaylen Clark 8 2 1 0
Julian Phillips 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Drummond · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Andre Drummond makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
10 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
44%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 24.5 7.1 5.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.7 5.2 3.5
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 21.8 3.5 4.5
4 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 18.2 4.0 4.4
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.7 4.4 3.5
6 Naz Reid MIN 15.7 6.8 3.0
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.8 4.8 2.4
8 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.8 5.9 3.7
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.1 10.8 1.6
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.7 3.8 4.5
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.6 5.0 1.1
12 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.5 2.9 2.6
13 Bones Hyland MIN 8.9 2.8 2.7
14 Andre Drummond PHI 6.7 7.6 1.3
15 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 6.3 3.8 1.1
16 Trendon Watford PHI 6.0 3.3 2.0
17 Cameron Payne PHI 5.7 1.4 2.3
18 Tyrese Martin PHI 5.6 2.1 0.7
19 Adem Bona PHI 5.6 4.8 0.6
20 Justin Edwards PHI 4.9 1.8 0.9
21 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.3 1.4 0.7
22 Mike Conley MIN 4.0 1.8 1.9
23 Jabari Walker PHI 3.6 2.4 0.7
24 Dalen Terry PHI 3.5 1.7 1.2
25 Joan Beringer MIN 3.3 2.3 0.6
26 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.5 1.2 0.5
27 Julian Phillips MIN 1.8 0.7 0.3
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.6 0.6 0.7
29 Joe Ingles MIN 1.3 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.