NBA games

BOS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
111–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28322427111
LAL2822211889

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home LAL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 36 32 8 7
Payton Pritchard 38 30 4 8
Derrick White S 35 12 5 8
Neemias Queta S 26 10 12 1
Nikola Vucevic 21 9 8 0
Sam Hauser S 29 7 6 2
Baylor Scheierman S 29 5 2 2
Hugo Gonzalez 14 4 3 1
Ron Harper Jr. 1 2 0 0
Amari Williams 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 33 25 5 3
LeBron James S 34 20 4 5
Austin Reaves S 32 15 7 2
Luke Kennard 22 9 3 0
Rui Hachimura 21 5 2 0
Deandre Ayton S 25 4 7 1
Jake LaRavia 24 4 3 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 11 3 5 0
Kobe Bufkin 3 2 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"LeBron James makes 1-foot running dunk (Marcus Smart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
12%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Derrick White BOS
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
13%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 25.9 7.0 7.9
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.7 6.9 3.9
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 22.5 3.8 5.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 19.2 4.3 4.4
5 LeBron James LAL 17.9 4.6 6.7
6 Derrick White BOS 17.1 3.9 6.3
7 Nikola Vucevic BOS 16.1 7.7 3.2
8 Sam Hauser BOS 10.3 3.7 1.9
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.1 3.1 1.3
10 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.1 6.9 1.1
11 Marcus Smart LAL 9.7 2.6 2.5
12 Jake LaRavia LAL 9.1 3.0 1.6
13 Luke Kennard LAL 8.8 2.9 1.6
14 Neemias Queta BOS 8.7 8.1 2.0
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.0 3.9 1.3
16 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.8 5.8 1.9
17 Luka Garza BOS 6.9 3.4 1.3
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.8 3.7 1.3
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.2 3.4 1.0
20 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.6 3.1 0.8
21 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.2 2.4 1.0
22 Dalano Banton BOS 3.0 0.9 0.7
23 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.8 1.0 0.5
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.6 1.6 0.6
25 Amari Williams BOS 1.9 2.0 0.4
26 Dalton Knecht LAL 1.8 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.