NBA games

CHA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
129–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA38234424129
WSH37192828112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home WSH
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 27 37 8 7
Kon Knueppel S 28 28 7 4
Brandon Miller S 26 22 4 3
Josh Green 23 12 4 1
Tidjane Salaun 21 9 2 1
Tre Mann 21 6 0 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 15 6 9 2
Grant Williams S 26 5 4 5
Pat Connaughton 11 2 3 0
PJ Hall 17 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 17 17 2 2
Jaden Hardy 22 16 4 1
Kyshawn George S 18 13 2 1
Jamir Watkins 16 13 4 1
Will Riley 31 11 6 4
Tre Johnson S 19 11 1 3
Sharife Cooper 22 9 3 3
Anthony Gill S 31 8 5 4
Alondes Williams 34 8 7 3
Bub Carrington S 30 6 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
3 Tre Johnson WSH
9%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
6 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
7%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
9 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
6%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
37%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
19%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 22.9 5.2 4.0
2 Kon Knueppel CHA 21.9 5.4 4.1
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.1 4.6 6.7
4 Miles Bridges CHA 16.6 4.9 3.4
5 Tre Johnson WSH 14.2 2.8 2.7
6 Kyshawn George WSH 13.1 4.3 3.6
7 Will Riley WSH 12.5 3.1 2.5
8 Bub Carrington WSH 12.3 2.9 4.6
9 Alondes Williams WSH 11.0 4.9 3.0
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.6 4.0 2.8
11 Sharife Cooper WSH 10.3 3.4 3.6
12 Jamir Watkins WSH 9.8 4.5 1.7
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.7 8.9 1.6
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.6 6.0 1.5
15 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.1 3.5 1.5
16 Grant Williams CHA 8.4 4.2 1.9
17 Jaden Hardy WSH 8.1 1.7 1.4
18 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 7.2 6.0 1.1
19 PJ Hall CHA 6.5 5.6 1.0
20 Anthony Gill WSH 6.1 3.7 1.6
21 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.0 4.1 1.0
22 Sion James CHA 6.0 3.5 2.0
23 Josh Green CHA 5.7 2.0 1.1
24 Tre Mann CHA 4.9 1.8 1.6
25 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.3 1.6 1.0
26 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.