NBA games

DAL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
134–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36353231134
IND33332935130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home IND
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 30 25 7 7
P.J. Washington S 37 23 9 2
Naji Marshall S 26 17 2 2
Max Christie S 31 16 2 4
Brandon Williams 22 15 1 7
Marvin Bagley III 26 12 11 1
Klay Thompson 19 9 3 0
Daniel Gafford S 22 8 6 2
Caleb Martin 18 7 4 1
Tyus Jones 12 2 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 29 30 8 3
Andrew Nembhard S 30 22 1 11
Jarace Walker S 34 18 9 6
Kobe Brown 19 15 7 0
Ben Sheppard 27 13 3 2
Quenton Jackson 23 11 4 6
Kam Jones S 31 10 0 3
Jay Huff S 26 9 1 1
Micah Potter 22 2 6 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Max Christie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
4 Max Christie DAL
8%
5 Jarace Walker IND
7%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
8 T.J. McConnell IND
7%
9 Khris Middleton DAL
6%
10 Jay Huff IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
33%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 21.7 5.1 3.8
2 Naji Marshall DAL 20.7 6.1 4.1
3 Jarace Walker IND 18.3 7.2 4.0
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.2 4.1 9.0
5 Brandon Williams DAL 15.7 3.5 4.0
6 Max Christie DAL 14.7 3.2 2.6
7 Khris Middleton DAL 14.0 4.2 3.2
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.8 3.6 2.6
9 P.J. Washington DAL 13.1 6.1 2.1
10 Jay Huff IND 11.6 5.0 1.7
11 Marvin Bagley III DAL 11.2 7.8 1.5
12 Quenton Jackson IND 11.1 2.8 2.5
13 Micah Potter IND 10.4 5.3 1.8
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.8 6.9 1.4
15 Klay Thompson DAL 9.7 2.7 1.6
16 T.J. McConnell IND 9.1 2.4 4.0
17 Ben Sheppard IND 8.5 3.0 2.2
18 Caleb Martin DAL 8.1 4.4 2.0
19 Kam Jones IND 7.3 2.4 3.6
20 Kobe Brown IND 6.0 3.0 1.1
21 AJ Johnson DAL 5.6 2.3 1.3
22 Tyus Jones DAL 5.2 1.5 3.2
23 Miles Kelly DAL 2.8 1.1 0.6
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.2 2.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.