NBA games

DEN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
117–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27403416117
GS39371933128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home GS
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 35 20 12
Jamal Murray S 33 21 2 2
Christian Braun S 35 18 5 2
Bruce Brown 29 12 5 2
Cameron Johnson S 38 9 3 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 25 8 1 0
Jonas Valanciunas 12 6 3 2
Julian Strawther S 18 6 3 2
Spencer Jones 13 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody S 35 23 7 5
Al Horford S 27 22 1 7
De'Anthony Melton S 25 20 4 2
Brandin Podziemski 37 18 15 9
Gui Santos S 28 17 5 7
Gary Payton II 19 15 3 0
Will Richard 30 11 2 3
Pat Spencer S 19 2 0 5
Quinten Post 21 0 7 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Moses Moody makes running layup (Gui Santos assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Gui Santos GS
12%
3 De'Anthony Melton GS
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Julian Strawther DEN
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Pat Spencer GS
9%
9 Moses Moody GS
8%
10 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
22%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.5 12.0 8.4
2 Jamal Murray DEN 22.1 4.6 7.6
3 De'Anthony Melton GS 15.0 3.3 3.2
4 Kristaps Porzingis GS 14.8 4.3 2.0
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.6 3.6 1.5
6 Gui Santos GS 14.2 5.3 3.4
7 Moses Moody GS 13.8 4.2 1.7
8 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.0 4.2 2.5
9 Julian Strawther DEN 12.5 4.0 2.2
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.4 5.3 4.6
11 Bruce Brown DEN 10.2 3.3 2.0
12 Pat Spencer GS 10.2 3.2 4.0
13 Al Horford GS 10.1 5.4 3.1
14 Christian Braun DEN 10.1 4.3 2.8
15 Draymond Green GS 8.8 4.6 4.6
16 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.5 5.9 1.2
17 Spencer Jones DEN 7.3 4.2 1.1
18 Gary Payton II GS 7.2 2.6 1.3
19 KJ Simpson DEN 6.6 1.9 2.7
20 Will Richard GS 6.0 2.4 1.6
21 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.5 1.9 0.9
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.2 3.7 0.7
23 Quinten Post GS 3.8 2.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.