NBA games

TOR @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
12294
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR22383230122
MIL2724222194

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 31 32 3 9
Brandon Ingram S 31 22 2 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 23 15 4 4
Jamal Shead 23 12 6 6
Ja'Kobe Walter S 30 9 6 3
Collin Murray-Boyles 20 8 4 0
RJ Barrett S 27 7 6 3
Jakob Poeltl S 26 6 8 2
Jamison Battle 9 5 3 0
Gradey Dick 16 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 33 21 9 1
Kevin Porter Jr. S 31 21 2 10
Cam Thomas 21 15 3 1
Myles Turner S 25 14 4 1
Bobby Portis 18 6 7 1
Jericho Sims 24 4 7 2
AJ Green S 26 3 1 1
Kyle Kuzma S 18 3 4 1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 4 3 1 0
Gary Harris 7 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes layup (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
13%
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL
12%
3 Myles Turner MIL
11%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
10%
6 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Jericho Sims MIL
9%
9 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
10 AJ Green MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
25%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ryan Rollins MIL 22.2 4.7 5.6
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 20.1 4.4 3.1
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.2 4.7 5.2
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 18.2 5.3 7.0
5 RJ Barrett TOR 17.4 5.6 3.9
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.4 6.6 4.7
7 Myles Turner MIL 14.3 7.7 1.8
8 Cam Thomas MIL 14.3 2.7 2.6
9 Bobby Portis MIL 14.1 7.4 2.7
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 12.7 4.5 2.0
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.3 5.5 2.4
12 AJ Green MIL 10.0 2.9 2.1
13 Jakob Poeltl TOR 8.4 6.3 2.4
14 Pete Nance MIL 7.9 3.3 1.2
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.9 2.6 1.5
16 Jamal Shead TOR 6.3 2.4 3.9
17 Jericho Sims MIL 6.2 5.8 1.4
18 Ousmane Dieng MIL 6.2 2.7 1.3
19 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 6.0 1.2 1.0
20 Gradey Dick TOR 5.6 2.3 0.9
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.5 1.4 0.6
22 Gary Harris MIL 2.5 1.0 0.9
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.4 1.4 0.6
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.3 1.5 0.5
25 Jamison Battle TOR 2.1 1.0 0.4
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.