NBA games

BKN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
104–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN30263117104
ATL32282926115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ATL
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 18 7 6
Nic Claxton S 31 15 8 5
Egor Demin S 28 13 1 4
Noah Clowney S 31 12 5 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 11 5 2
Nolan Traore S 35 11 1 5
Drake Powell 14 7 1 1
Ochai Agbaji 14 6 1 1
Terance Mann 17 6 1 0
Danny Wolf 18 5 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 38 26 12 4
Jock Landale 16 17 6 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 17 3 6
CJ McCollum S 32 16 8 4
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 13 11 1
Corey Kispert 13 9 0 0
Zaccharie Risacher 20 7 1 0
Dyson Daniels S 33 7 10 8
Gabe Vincent 11 3 1 3
Mouhamed Gueye 10 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:41 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
18%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
5 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN
9%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
9 Nolan Traore BKN
7%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 22.8 6.4 3.6
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.0 8.7 7.1
3 CJ McCollum ATL 20.8 3.5 3.8
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.6 4.1 5.1
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.6 6.5 2.8
6 Nolan Traore BKN 14.4 3.4 5.6
7 Egor Demin BKN 13.3 4.0 3.0
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.8 5.8 5.4
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.7 6.7 3.1
10 Danny Wolf BKN 12.5 6.2 3.2
11 Noah Clowney BKN 12.3 4.5 1.6
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 12.1 9.1 2.2
13 Corey Kispert ATL 10.7 3.2 1.9
14 Jock Landale ATL 10.5 5.6 1.5
15 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.8 4.6 1.4
16 Terance Mann BKN 8.6 3.3 2.1
17 Buddy Hield ATL 7.8 2.2 1.4
18 Drake Powell BKN 6.5 2.7 1.3
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.1 3.7 1.0
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.0 2.8 1.2
21 Ochai Agbaji BKN 5.0 2.5 1.0
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.0 1.4 0.9
23 Gabe Vincent ATL 3.9 0.9 1.1
24 Asa Newell ATL 3.7 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.