NBA games

CLE @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
113–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25303127113
OKC40242532121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home OKC
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sam Merrill 29 20 3 0
James Harden S 34 20 5 9
Donovan Mitchell S 35 20 7 5
Evan Mobley S 25 15 2 1
Jarrett Allen S 29 11 13 2
Dennis Schroder 22 11 4 7
Keon Ellis 23 9 1 3
Jaylon Tyson 16 7 4 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 10 0 2 0
Dean Wade S 18 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Joe S 30 22 2 3
Cason Wallace S 34 20 4 10
Chet Holmgren S 34 17 15 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 13 7 4
Luguentz Dort S 35 12 3 2
Jared McCain 16 10 3 1
Jaylin Williams 17 10 3 0
Kenrich Williams 18 8 2 1
Aaron Wiggins 22 7 3 4
Nikola Topic 8 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
4 James Harden CLE
9%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
6 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
9 Chet Holmgren OKC
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
36%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden CLE 22.1 5.1 8.4
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.0 2.9 5.3
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 20.8 10.9 2.1
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.7 9.4 4.0
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE 13.7 4.4 2.6
6 Isaiah Joe OKC 12.7 3.3 1.9
7 Cason Wallace OKC 12.1 3.3 3.3
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.9 3.7 2.1
9 Chet Holmgren OKC 10.7 6.2 1.4
10 Dennis Schroder CLE 10.2 2.8 3.8
11 Jaylin Williams OKC 9.9 5.8 2.5
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 3.7 1.8
13 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.2 7.2 4.3
14 Sam Merrill CLE 8.8 2.5 1.8
15 Jared McCain OKC 8.2 2.3 1.5
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.1 3.6 1.6
17 Nikola Topic OKC 8.1 2.6 3.4
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 8.0 3.2 1.4
19 Dean Wade CLE 7.6 4.6 1.5
20 Keon Ellis CLE 6.5 3.0 1.3
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.9 3.6 1.2
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.2 2.8 3.0
23 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.0 1.3 1.5
24 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.6 2.3 0.7
25 Buddy Boeheim OKC 3.0 1.1 0.5
26 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 3.0 1.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.