NBA games

HOU @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
106–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU21333715106
NY27262233108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home NY
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 30 6 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 21 4 1
Alperen Sengun S 31 16 6 6
Amen Thompson S 41 12 10 7
Tari Eason S 35 11 12 4
Reed Sheppard 21 10 2 3
Clint Capela 11 4 1 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 21 2 3 0
Jae'Sean Tate 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 25 7 1
Jalen Brunson S 36 20 3 6
OG Anunoby S 40 20 2 1
Landry Shamet 26 14 0 2
Mikal Bridges S 31 11 6 5
Jose Alvarado 20 8 1 4
Mitchell Robinson 18 6 4 0
Josh Hart S 27 2 6 6
Mohamed Diawara 4 2 0 1
Jeremy Sochan 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes 25-foot running jump shot (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 OG Anunoby NY
11%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
8 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Tari Eason HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 20.8 3.7 5.1
2 Kevin Durant HOU 18.7 4.3 3.2
3 OG Anunoby NY 18.1 4.9 3.1
4 Mikal Bridges NY 16.8 3.6 3.2
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 16.3 9.9 2.5
6 Alperen Sengun HOU 15.4 8.2 4.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.8 7.3 1.8
8 Josh Hart NY 13.8 6.2 4.9
9 Amen Thompson HOU 13.7 7.1 5.4
10 Tari Eason HOU 11.8 5.5 1.6
11 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.5 3.5 2.7
12 Landry Shamet NY 10.9 2.4 2.1
13 Jose Alvarado NY 8.4 2.6 2.6
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.1 7.3 0.7
15 Mohamed Diawara NY 5.4 1.8 0.9
16 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.4 2.0 1.0
17 Tyler Kolek NY 4.2 1.1 2.8
18 Josh Okogie HOU 3.9 2.4 0.6
19 Jordan Clarkson NY 3.8 1.2 0.8
20 Clint Capela HOU 3.8 4.4 0.6
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.2 1.6 0.5
22 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.4 1.3 0.6
23 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.4 1.2 0.4
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 2.5 0.3
25 Aaron Holiday HOU 1.9 0.7 0.6
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.5 0.6 0.3
27 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.4 1.0 1.0
28 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.0 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.