NBA games

SAC @ SA

NBA Moody Center ·Final
122–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC31342928122
SA35383234139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home SA
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 20 1 5
Keegan Murray S 36 20 2 2
Malik Monk 28 19 1 6
Maxime Raynaud S 26 16 12 3
Precious Achiuwa S 21 14 3 4
Doug McDermott 5 8 1 1
Nique Clifford 30 8 5 4
Russell Westbrook S 21 7 3 2
Drew Eubanks 14 6 4 4
Daeqwon Plowden 18 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 30 28 15 6
Stephon Castle S 25 18 8 3
De'Aaron Fox S 27 18 2 5
Keldon Johnson 21 18 1 0
Harrison Barnes 21 14 2 1
Dylan Harper 23 12 5 5
Devin Vassell S 24 8 3 3
Julian Champagnie S 28 8 4 3
Kelly Olynyk 6 4 2 1
Luke Kornet 13 4 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 13-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
2 Stephon Castle SA
13%
3 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
11%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
6 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 De'Aaron Fox SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
32%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.8 9.1 3.2
2 Stephon Castle SA 18.5 5.1 6.6
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.3 3.7 3.3
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 15.9 3.2 4.9
5 Malik Monk SAC 14.6 2.6 3.2
6 Keegan Murray SAC 13.9 5.3 1.8
7 Dylan Harper SA 13.5 4.4 3.7
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.2 4.9 2.2
9 Nique Clifford SAC 12.2 3.9 3.4
10 De'Aaron Fox SA 12.1 2.6 5.6
11 Devin Vassell SA 11.8 3.4 2.0
12 Maxime Raynaud SAC 11.5 8.2 1.3
13 Harrison Barnes SA 9.8 3.1 2.0
14 Devin Carter SAC 9.4 3.5 2.8
15 Julian Champagnie SA 9.2 4.2 1.4
16 Carter Bryant SA 6.6 3.3 1.1
17 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.2 5.3 1.1
18 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 6.0 2.7 1.2
19 Dylan Cardwell SAC 5.8 8.2 1.1
20 Luke Kornet SA 5.6 6.0 1.6
21 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.5 2.2 0.5
22 Stanley Umude SA 3.4 0.9 0.4
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.3 1.8 0.8
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.0 1.4 0.9
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.7 0.8 0.4
26 Harrison Ingram SA 2.5 1.3 0.4
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.4 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.