NBA games

DET @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
126–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET28254429126
CHI30202634110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHI
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 29 26 13 2
Tobias Harris S 30 18 6 1
Cade Cunningham S 30 18 9 13
Duncan Robinson S 24 17 3 2
Paul Reed 19 15 9 0
Ronald Holland II 17 9 4 2
Ausar Thompson S 32 8 3 8
Caris LeVert 18 7 0 2
Daniss Jenkins 21 3 0 2
Marcus Sasser 3 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 27 27 6 3
Matas Buzelis S 30 15 6 3
Isaac Okoro S 34 15 3 3
Jalen Smith S 25 15 7 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 24 12 9 8
Tre Jones 26 7 2 6
Patrick Williams 16 6 1 1
Nick Richards 19 5 5 0
Anfernee Simons 13 4 2 0
Collin Sexton 15 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris DET
11%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
7 Paul Reed DET
9%
8 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
9 Anfernee Simons CHI
8%
10 Jalen Smith CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
40%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
24%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.1 5.5 7.7
2 Anfernee Simons CHI 17.2 3.2 3.1
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.4 6.1 2.5
4 Josh Giddey CHI 15.1 6.3 7.8
5 Tobias Harris DET 14.5 6.2 2.5
6 Tre Jones CHI 13.8 3.7 6.6
7 Jalen Smith CHI 12.2 7.1 1.5
8 Collin Sexton CHI 11.8 2.7 2.5
9 Jalen Duren DET 11.6 7.7 1.5
10 Duncan Robinson DET 11.4 2.8 2.1
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.5 2.8 1.9
12 Ausar Thompson DET 10.1 6.5 2.7
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 9.1 2.7 2.6
14 Patrick Williams CHI 9.0 3.7 1.8
15 Paul Reed DET 8.6 4.9 1.6
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.2 3.1 1.0
17 Ronald Holland II DET 7.8 4.0 1.6
18 Caris LeVert DET 6.8 2.7 2.7
19 Javonte Green DET 5.7 2.8 1.0
20 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 5.3 2.9 0.9
21 Kevin Huerter DET 4.9 2.7 1.5
22 Rob Dillingham CHI 4.8 1.9 1.9
23 Tolu Smith DET 4.8 4.3 0.9
24 Nick Richards CHI 4.6 3.8 0.7
25 Marcus Sasser DET 3.5 0.8 1.4
26 Chaz Lanier DET 2.5 0.9 0.5
27 Leonard Miller CHI 2.0 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.