NBA games

MEM @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
120–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM33352626120
MIA39343924136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIA
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson 26 28 9 2
Jaylen Wells S 27 25 2 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 21 18 3 6
Ty Jerome S 22 17 6 4
Javon Small 26 10 1 1
Walter Clayton Jr. S 25 9 4 6
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 26 9 3 4
Taylor Hendricks S 24 4 2 0
Jahmai Mashack 22 0 3 1
Cam Spencer 21 0 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 29 28 7 3
Norman Powell S 27 25 2 6
Tyler Herro 23 14 5 6
Bam Adebayo S 27 13 6 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 23 12 5 2
Kasparas Jakucionis S 23 12 3 5
Kel'el Ware 19 11 15 0
Pelle Larsson S 35 10 1 5
Myron Gardner 6 5 3 2
Dru Smith 22 4 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Ty Jerome MEM
10%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
4 Norman Powell MIA
10%
5 GG Jackson MEM
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
7 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
9 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
10 Taylor Hendricks MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
24%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.1 10.4 3.9
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.9 4.8 3.3
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.8 6.4 5.0
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.7 5.8 2.8
5 Norman Powell MIA 16.2 3.6 2.4
6 Ty Jerome MEM 15.7 2.6 4.9
7 Pelle Larsson MIA 14.7 5.5 3.9
8 GG Jackson MEM 14.5 6.1 2.8
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.4 3.5 1.9
10 Cedric Coward MEM 11.4 4.3 2.9
11 Cam Spencer MEM 11.0 2.9 5.9
12 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 10.6 4.2 1.2
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.3 3.1 5.6
14 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.2 1.8 3.8
15 Javon Small MEM 9.8 3.5 3.7
16 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.1 6.9 0.9
17 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 8.9 3.2 3.7
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.5 3.7 1.8
19 Kyle Anderson MEM 7.3 3.3 2.1
20 Taylor Hendricks MEM 6.4 3.5 1.4
21 Dru Smith MIA 6.3 2.7 3.3
22 Jahmai Mashack MEM 6.2 2.3 1.6
23 Myron Gardner MIA 5.9 4.7 1.7
24 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 5.2 1.9 2.5
25 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.9 2.5 0.9
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.9 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.