NBA games

PHI @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
111–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI29362620111
NO24334029126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NO
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 36 27 3 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 33 25 5 2
VJ Edgecombe S 35 14 5 3
Quentin Grimes 26 11 1 3
Jabari Walker 16 9 6 1
Dominick Barlow S 29 9 5 0
Cameron Payne 13 5 0 1
Andre Drummond S 21 5 12 1
Adem Bona 21 4 10 1
Justin Edwards 6 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole 24 23 3 5
Zion Williamson S 33 21 6 8
Saddiq Bey S 27 20 4 2
Herbert Jones S 32 14 1 3
Bryce McGowens 27 13 1 1
Karlo Matkovic 18 12 3 0
Derik Queen S 21 10 9 0
Jeremiah Fears 25 7 7 6
DeAndre Jordan S 32 6 15 0
Jordan Hawkins 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Drummond · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Andre Drummond makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
5 Derik Queen NO
10%
6 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
7 Bryce McGowens NO
9%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
9%
9 Herbert Jones NO
8%
10 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
16%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 23.3 7.1 4.0
2 Saddiq Bey NO 21.8 6.6 3.8
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 21.4 3.7 4.4
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.4 6.1 4.0
5 Derik Queen NO 13.9 6.8 3.0
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.9 4.9 2.4
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 11.4 4.0 3.1
8 Jordan Poole NO 10.9 2.5 2.3
9 Herbert Jones NO 10.5 4.0 3.4
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.7 3.2 3.0
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.7 4.8 1.2
12 Bryce McGowens NO 9.5 2.1 1.8
13 Andre Drummond PHI 6.9 7.6 1.3
14 Trendon Watford PHI 6.5 3.5 2.0
15 Cameron Payne PHI 6.0 1.6 2.7
16 Adem Bona PHI 5.6 4.8 0.6
17 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.5 3.6 1.1
18 Tyrese Martin PHI 4.2 1.6 0.5
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.2 2.2 0.8
20 Justin Edwards PHI 3.4 1.2 0.6
21 Jabari Walker PHI 3.2 2.2 0.8
22 Kevon Looney NO 3.1 5.5 0.9
23 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.8 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.