NBA games

ORL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
110–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
ORL2526222377110
PHX21223419710113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home PHX
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 40 34 4 3
Paolo Banchero S 47 26 14 8
Jevon Carter 33 15 2 2
Anthony Black S 45 10 4 4
Moritz Wagner 12 7 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 7 11 1
Tristan da Silva S 38 5 9 3
Goga Bitadze 9 4 3 0
Jonathan Isaac 8 2 2 0
Jett Howard 19 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen 33 27 7 2
Collin Gillespie S 45 19 5 6
Jordan Goodwin 25 17 6 1
Jalen Green S 37 16 7 5
Oso Ighodaro 30 11 12 1
Mark Williams S 28 9 9 1
Royce O'Neale S 46 6 7 4
Dillon Brooks S 7 5 3 0
Ryan Dunn 22 3 7 0
Jamaree Bouyea 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes driving layup (Anthony Black assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
16%
2 Anthony Black ORL
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Mark Williams PHX
11%
5 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
6 Jalen Green PHX
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
52%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.4 7.2 4.9
2 Dillon Brooks PHX 23.1 4.6 2.7
3 Desmond Bane ORL 22.1 3.5 3.4
4 Anthony Black ORL 18.9 4.4 3.9
5 Grayson Allen PHX 17.3 3.4 4.9
6 Mark Williams PHX 12.3 8.2 1.4
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.2 3.9 4.3
8 Jalen Green PHX 12.1 2.7 2.5
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.9 4.2 2.2
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.0 4.7 2.0
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.3 6.7 1.7
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.8 3.0 0.8
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.6 5.0 2.1
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.5 2.8 1.4
15 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 6.3 2.4 1.9
16 Jett Howard ORL 5.3 1.6 0.8
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.2 2.7 1.1
18 Amir Coffey PHX 5.0 1.8 0.8
19 Jevon Carter ORL 4.3 1.6 0.7
20 Noah Penda ORL 4.2 2.5 1.0
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.8 4.2 0.3
22 Jamal Cain ORL 3.6 1.5 0.7
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.6 1.9 0.7
24 Jase Richardson ORL 3.3 1.5 0.8
25 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.0 2.0 0.8
26 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.0 2.8 0.8
27 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.7 2.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.