NBA games

DEN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
157–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN41414332157
POR27263218103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home POR
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 29 32 9 7
Jamal Murray S 25 25 6 6
Julian Strawther S 29 19 6 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 19 19 2 3
Cameron Johnson S 27 15 4 4
Christian Braun S 27 11 8 7
Spencer Jones 30 10 10 2
DaRon Holmes II 7 9 3 1
Jonas Valanciunas 12 6 7 1
Bruce Brown 20 6 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 25 19 2 2
Deni Avdija S 30 15 8 13
Donovan Clingan S 19 15 9 2
Scoot Henderson 21 11 1 3
Vit Krejci 17 11 1 0
Toumani Camara S 26 10 1 1
Jerami Grant S 25 6 3 0
Matisse Thybulle 13 5 2 1
Yang Hansen 8 4 1 0
Blake Wesley 12 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Cameron Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
2 Jerami Grant POR
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
10%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
7 Christian Braun DEN
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Kris Murray POR
6%
10 Sidy Cissoko POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
34%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.3 11.6 8.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 22.0 5.1 8.1
3 Jrue Holiday POR 19.0 4.3 5.3
4 Deni Avdija POR 17.8 5.6 4.7
5 Scoot Henderson POR 17.4 4.7 6.4
6 Jerami Grant POR 17.3 3.4 2.2
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.1 3.9 1.4
8 Donovan Clingan POR 13.1 10.6 2.5
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.0 4.3 2.3
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.0 6.0 2.2
11 Julian Strawther DEN 11.0 3.7 1.7
12 Bruce Brown DEN 10.8 4.0 2.0
13 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 9.6 6.6 1.4
14 Christian Braun DEN 9.4 4.1 2.6
15 Kris Murray POR 8.3 3.8 1.7
16 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.1 3.2 1.6
17 Spencer Jones DEN 7.1 4.0 1.0
18 Robert Williams III POR 6.5 7.0 1.1
19 KJ Simpson DEN 6.3 2.2 2.4
20 Vit Krejci POR 5.4 1.4 1.1
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.2 0.9
22 Blake Wesley POR 4.7 1.2 2.1
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.8 1.5
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 3.1 0.4
25 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.2 1.4 0.6
26 Javonte Cooke POR 1.6 1.0 0.3
27 Yang Hansen POR 1.5 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.