NBA games

LAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
122–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC30353027122
LAL41312726125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home LAL
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 31 31 4 5
Bennedict Mathurin 32 26 7 2
Brook Lopez S 35 16 10 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 39 13 8 2
John Collins S 16 12 1 0
Jordan Miller 25 10 1 4
Kris Dunn S 35 8 5 8
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 13 6 3 1
Nicolas Batum 15 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 38 6 11
Austin Reaves S 33 29 6 2
LeBron James S 33 13 3 11
Deandre Ayton S 28 13 7 1
Luke Kennard 18 9 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 11 8 3 0
Marcus Smart S 29 7 2 0
Jake LaRavia 14 3 1 1
Rui Hachimura 26 3 2 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 10 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 15-foot hook shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 John Collins LAC
10%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
7 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Brook Lopez LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
10%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 27.0 7.7 7.5
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.5 6.2 4.4
3 Austin Reaves LAL 19.8 4.1 4.8
4 LeBron James LAL 19.4 4.6 6.4
5 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 19.1 4.7 3.6
6 John Collins LAC 16.5 6.4 1.9
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.8 3.2 1.1
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.7 3.3 1.6
9 Kris Dunn LAC 10.2 3.1 5.3
10 Brook Lopez LAC 10.0 3.6 1.6
11 Jordan Miller LAC 9.4 3.1 2.4
12 Marcus Smart LAL 9.3 2.7 2.5
13 Deandre Ayton LAL 8.5 6.4 0.9
14 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.4 3.0 1.5
15 Luke Kennard LAL 7.6 2.8 1.5
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.5 2.6 2.3
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.8 3.5 1.1
18 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.2 1.9 1.7
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.8 2.6 1.1
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.5 3.9 1.1
21 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.1 3.1 0.6
22 Isaiah Jackson LAC 3.4 3.7 0.8
23 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.2 1.2 0.5
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.9 1.8 0.6
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.5 1.0 0.5
26 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.0 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.