NBA games

MIL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
139–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL33383236139
NO38273122118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home NO
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas 21 27 3 1
Ryan Rollins S 35 27 2 6
Kevin Porter Jr. S 32 25 2 7
Bobby Portis 27 17 11 1
Kyle Kuzma S 25 14 3 4
Pete Nance 22 10 5 2
Ousmane Dieng 22 10 2 1
Jericho Sims S 19 4 6 1
Gary Trent Jr. 2 3 0 0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 2 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 30 32 2 2
Saddiq Bey S 36 22 6 3
Derik Queen S 28 18 9 4
Jeremiah Fears 29 16 4 5
Bryce McGowens S 30 10 1 0
Karlo Matkovic 25 9 7 2
Herbert Jones S 32 8 4 3
Jordan Poole 25 3 4 3
Jordan Hawkins 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes 1-foot running dunk (Saddiq Bey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
12%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
12%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
12%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
6 Derik Queen NO
9%
7 Jericho Sims MIL
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Ousmane Dieng MIL
7%
10 AJ Green MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
16%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 21.1 7.3 3.8
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.7 4.5 5.3
3 Saddiq Bey NO 20.7 6.1 3.3
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 17.6 6.0 6.8
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.1 6.6 3.7
6 Bobby Portis MIL 14.2 6.5 2.4
7 Cam Thomas MIL 11.5 2.3 3.2
8 Derik Queen NO 11.5 6.0 2.9
9 AJ Green MIL 10.4 2.8 1.7
10 Jeremiah Fears NO 8.8 3.1 2.5
11 Herbert Jones NO 7.6 3.0 3.0
12 Jordan Poole NO 7.4 1.5 1.8
13 Bryce McGowens NO 7.4 1.5 1.5
14 Pete Nance MIL 5.5 2.6 0.8
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.3 0.8 0.9
16 Jericho Sims MIL 5.1 4.9 1.1
17 Ousmane Dieng MIL 4.2 2.2 1.1
18 Karlo Matkovic NO 3.6 2.6 0.8
19 Kevon Looney NO 3.0 5.3 0.9
20 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.9 1.4 0.6
21 Gary Harris MIL 2.7 1.1 1.0
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.7 0.8 0.4
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.