NBA games

DAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
111–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL25323123111
MIN40292726122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIN
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 30 18 6 2
Naji Marshall S 33 15 5 3
Marvin Bagley III 24 15 13 0
Brandon Williams 18 13 1 4
Tyus Jones S 26 13 1 6
P.J. Washington S 36 12 12 2
Klay Thompson 28 11 0 2
Daniel Gafford S 24 8 5 1
Caleb Martin 15 4 2 1
AJ Johnson 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 40 6 1
Rudy Gobert S 32 22 17 1
Naz Reid 30 21 7 4
Julius Randle S 29 13 5 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 9 5 9
Jaden McDaniels S 34 7 8 5
Ayo Dosunmu 27 5 2 3
Bones Hyland 15 3 4 2
Joan Beringer 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Naji Marshall DAL
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
12%
4 Brandon Williams DAL
12%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
10 Khris Middleton DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
36%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 24.4 7.0 5.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.6 4.7 3.5
3 Naji Marshall DAL 21.0 6.1 3.5
4 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 19.3 4.0 4.1
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.5 3.8 2.9
6 Brandon Williams DAL 15.9 3.4 3.4
7 Naz Reid MIN 14.2 6.9 2.9
8 Khris Middleton DAL 13.0 3.7 3.0
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.9 10.7 1.4
10 P.J. Washington DAL 11.1 4.8 1.5
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.1 3.4 4.2
12 Bones Hyland MIN 9.1 2.6 2.7
13 Klay Thompson DAL 9.0 2.4 1.2
14 Marvin Bagley III DAL 8.9 6.4 0.9
15 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.7 6.8 1.0
16 Caleb Martin DAL 6.2 3.7 1.7
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.4 1.4 0.8
18 Mike Conley MIN 4.3 1.7 1.9
19 AJ Johnson DAL 3.9 1.8 0.8
20 Tyus Jones DAL 3.1 0.8 2.2
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.8 1.3 0.6
22 Enrique Freeman MIN 2.7 1.7 0.4
23 Joan Beringer MIN 2.6 1.8 0.4
24 Miles Kelly DAL 2.4 1.1 0.6
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.1 0.8 0.4
26 Dwight Powell DAL 1.9 2.9 0.5
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.