NBA games

MIA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
128–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29283041128
ATL1635242297

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ATL
91% 9%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro 23 24 4 3
Bam Adebayo S 27 17 8 5
Norman Powell S 25 15 3 2
Kel'el Ware 18 14 12 1
Andrew Wiggins S 27 13 7 2
Pelle Larsson S 32 12 6 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 10 5 4
Davion Mitchell S 27 7 5 7
Keshad Johnson 3 5 1 0
Kasparas Jakucionis 17 4 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 22 3 3
CJ McCollum 27 20 2 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 37 20 3 3
Jalen Johnson S 35 16 16 11
Corey Kispert 24 6 3 3
Dyson Daniels S 29 4 7 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 4 4 0
Jock Landale 19 3 6 1
Keaton Wallace 3 2 1 1
Mouhamed Gueye 13 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes driving floating jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
6 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
8 Jalen Johnson ATL
7%
9 Simone Fontecchio MIA
7%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
27%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 22.7 4.9 3.6
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.3 8.9 6.9
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.8 10.7 3.3
4 CJ McCollum ATL 21.5 4.1 4.4
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.7 4.2 5.3
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.7 6.4 4.8
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.6 7.0 3.0
8 Norman Powell MIA 16.2 3.5 2.2
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.8 5.0 2.8
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.9 5.0 3.8
11 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.2 6.0 5.6
12 Jock Landale ATL 12.0 6.3 1.7
13 Corey Kispert ATL 11.4 3.2 2.0
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.3 2.6 5.2
15 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.3 4.8 1.5
16 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 8.3 2.7 2.9
17 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.1 5.9 0.8
18 Buddy Hield ATL 7.7 2.2 1.5
19 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.6 3.5 1.5
20 Dru Smith MIA 6.2 2.5 2.8
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 4.0 1.1
22 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.6 2.2 0.7
23 Myron Gardner MIA 4.5 4.1 1.4
24 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.0 0.9 1.2
25 Asa Newell ATL 3.7 1.9 0.5
26 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.6 0.7 0.6
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.