NBA games

UTAH @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
114–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH32352126114
MEM28273236123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MEM
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Collier S 25 24 2 5
Kyle Filipowski S 28 20 6 4
Ace Bailey S 33 20 6 3
Blake Hinson 16 13 4 0
Brice Sensabaugh 19 9 4 3
Vince Williams Jr. 23 7 3 4
Kevin Love 5 6 1 2
John Konchar S 31 6 6 4
Cody Williams S 38 5 9 2
Elijah Harkless 7 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 30 23 5 1
GG Jackson S 28 20 4 3
Javon Small 29 16 4 5
Jaylen Wells S 27 13 3 3
Lawson Lovering S 32 11 11 3
Jahmai Mashack S 31 11 5 2
Kyle Anderson 18 10 1 0
Cam Spencer 21 10 3 10
Taylor Hendricks S 25 9 9 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lawson Lovering · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Lawson Lovering makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Isaiah Collier UTAH
15%
2 Ace Bailey UTAH
12%
3 Ty Jerome MEM
11%
4 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
10%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
6 Jahmai Mashack MEM
9%
7 Kyle Anderson MEM
9%
8 Cody Williams UTAH
9%
9 GG Jackson MEM
8%
10 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
19%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Isaiah Collier UTAH 19.2 4.4 10.0
2 Ty Jerome MEM 16.7 2.5 4.9
3 Ace Bailey UTAH 15.6 5.3 2.0
4 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 15.3 3.0 1.8
5 GG Jackson MEM 13.2 5.2 2.1
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.0 3.2 1.7
7 Cam Spencer MEM 12.0 2.7 5.7
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 11.4 8.1 2.0
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.0 1.8 3.9
10 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 8.2 3.8 0.8
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.0 2.2 1.2
12 Cody Williams UTAH 7.7 3.0 1.2
13 Vince Williams Jr. UTAH 7.4 3.2 2.7
14 Javon Small MEM 7.4 2.7 3.0
15 Kyle Anderson MEM 6.5 3.0 2.2
16 Kevin Love UTAH 5.7 6.3 1.2
17 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 5.6 1.8 2.6
18 Taylor Hendricks MEM 4.8 2.4 0.9
19 John Konchar UTAH 4.4 3.6 1.3
20 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.9 1.4 0.8
21 Jahmai Mashack MEM 3.8 1.2 1.0
22 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.2 2.5 0.8
23 Lawson Lovering MEM 2.0 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.