NBA games

IND @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
118–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND27412426118
WSH22353539131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home WSH
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jay Huff S 16 22 1 2
Quenton Jackson 23 21 3 3
Micah Potter 26 18 5 2
Jarace Walker S 31 12 12 6
Kobe Brown 33 12 5 0
Taelon Peter 37 12 2 3
T.J. McConnell S 15 9 2 2
Ben Sheppard S 20 8 5 3
Kam Jones S 39 4 5 11
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alondes Williams 29 25 10 4
Sharife Cooper 27 18 3 5
Tre Johnson S 19 14 1 1
Tristan Vukcevic S 20 14 8 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 22 13 3 3
Will Riley 12 12 1 2
Anthony Gill 23 11 3 6
Jamir Watkins 23 11 4 2
Kadary Richmond 31 7 3 4
Bub Carrington S 22 6 5 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jay Huff · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Jay Huff makes 25-foot running jump shot (T.J. McConnell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Johnson WSH
13%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
3 Jarace Walker IND
11%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
5 Bub Carrington WSH
10%
6 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Jay Huff IND
8%
9 Jamir Watkins WSH
8%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
42%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jarace Walker IND 20.2 6.8 3.5
2 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.8 4.4 8.8
3 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.1 3.9 2.6
4 Tre Johnson WSH 14.1 3.1 3.1
5 Bub Carrington WSH 13.4 2.9 4.4
6 Will Riley WSH 12.6 3.2 2.6
7 Jay Huff IND 10.1 5.0 1.6
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.9 3.8 2.6
9 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.7 5.4 1.4
10 Micah Potter IND 9.3 5.2 1.6
11 Sharife Cooper WSH 8.8 3.3 3.3
12 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.8 3.1 1.6
13 Jaden Hardy WSH 8.7 1.9 1.5
14 Jamir Watkins WSH 8.6 4.5 1.4
15 Quenton Jackson IND 8.1 2.2 1.6
16 Ben Sheppard IND 7.6 2.7 1.9
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.3 2.3 3.5
18 Kadary Richmond WSH 6.7 2.7 1.3
19 Anthony Gill WSH 6.1 3.9 1.3
20 Kam Jones IND 5.8 2.0 2.2
21 Kobe Brown IND 5.3 3.0 1.1
22 Taelon Peter IND 5.3 2.0 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.