NBA games

CLE @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
118–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30293128118
CHA20333624113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHA
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 32 3 4
Jarrett Allen S 32 26 14 2
James Harden S 34 18 4 8
Sam Merrill S 24 10 2 2
Dennis Schroder 20 8 0 3
Dean Wade S 26 8 4 0
Jaylon Tyson 17 5 1 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 13 5 2 1
Keon Ellis 24 4 4 3
Thomas Bryant 16 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 37 33 6 2
LaMelo Ball S 27 18 2 6
Brandon Miller S 23 18 2 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 36 12 13 1
Josh Green 20 11 2 2
Sion James S 30 5 6 7
Pat Connaughton 20 5 5 1
Antonio Reeves 6 3 0 0
Tre Mann 13 3 1 2
Tidjane Salaun 17 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 17-foot jumper (Sam Merrill assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 James Harden CLE
13%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
13%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
10%
7 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
9%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
9 LaMelo Ball CHA
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
17%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden CLE 23.7 5.5 8.5
2 Brandon Miller CHA 22.2 5.6 3.6
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.3 5.3 4.0
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE 19.2 2.8 5.4
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.0 4.4 6.3
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.0 10.0 2.0
7 Miles Bridges CHA 15.7 4.8 3.1
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE 15.1 4.8 3.0
9 Dennis Schroder CLE 12.1 3.0 3.8
10 Sam Merrill CLE 10.1 2.5 1.8
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.7 8.5 1.5
12 Dean Wade CLE 6.8 4.1 1.4
13 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.8 5.1 1.1
14 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.7 2.6 1.1
15 PJ Hall CHA 6.6 5.3 0.9
16 Keon Ellis CLE 6.1 2.4 1.1
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.7 3.8 0.9
18 Josh Green CHA 5.3 1.7 1.1
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.3 2.8 3.0
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.2 1.3 1.4
21 Sion James CHA 5.0 3.0 1.5
22 Tre Mann CHA 4.9 1.6 1.3
23 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.5 2.7 0.8
24 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.8 2.3 0.7
25 Tristan Enaruna CLE 3.5 1.7 0.5
26 Antonio Reeves CHA 2.0 0.6 0.3
27 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.2 0.7 0.3
28 Pat Connaughton CHA 1.1 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.