NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
114–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN24282537114
LAC25203337115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 22 17 6
Jamal Murray S 35 20 8 8
Bruce Brown 25 19 5 6
Julian Strawther S 25 18 1 2
Cameron Johnson S 35 18 4 3
Christian Braun S 34 7 2 3
Jonas Valanciunas 12 6 4 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 20 2 2 0
Spencer Jones 16 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 34 38 5 4
Kawhi Leonard S 33 23 4 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 34 22 3 1
John Collins S 32 11 12 4
Brook Lopez S 31 8 6 2
Nicolas Batum 18 6 2 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 13 4 4 1
Kris Dunn S 29 2 8 8
Jordan Miller 13 1 1 4
Isaiah Jackson 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes driving layup (Julian Strawther assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
2 John Collins LAC
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 Christian Braun DEN
8%
6 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Julian Strawther DEN
8%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
10 Brook Lopez LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.5 11.6 8.3
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.8 6.6 4.2
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.2 4.1 7.3
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 16.2 4.5 2.8
5 John Collins LAC 15.5 5.6 1.5
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.3 3.5 1.3
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 10.6 3.6 1.8
8 Jordan Miller LAC 10.5 3.4 1.8
9 Julian Strawther DEN 10.1 3.5 1.3
10 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 9.4 6.4 1.1
11 Bruce Brown DEN 9.0 3.1 1.5
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.0 2.4 4.1
13 Christian Braun DEN 8.4 3.2 1.9
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.2 3.2 1.2
15 Brook Lopez LAC 7.8 3.3 1.2
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.5 2.7 2.3
17 Spencer Jones DEN 5.2 2.9 0.7
18 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.9 1.9 1.7
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.4 1.5 1.4
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.1 2.7 0.3
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.0 1.9 0.8
22 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.8 1.1 0.5
23 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 2.8 2.4 0.3
24 Isaiah Jackson LAC 2.5 3.0 0.6
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.4 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.